Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
22.28%
Fair Odds
4.49
Draw
34.81%
Fair Odds
2.87
Away Win
42.91%
Fair Odds
2.33
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 18.82%
Fair Odds 5.31
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 4.49 | — | |
| Draw | 2.87 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.33 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | 18.82% | 5.31 |
| 2 | 0-0 | 18.27% | 5.47 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 12.61% | 7.93 |
| 4 | 1-0 | 12.24% | 8.17 |
| 5 | 0-2 | 9.69% | 10.32 |
| 6 | 1-2 | 6.49% | 15.4 |
| 7 | 2-1 | 4.22% | 23.68 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 4.1% | 24.39 |
| 9 | 0-3 | 3.33% | 30.06 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 2.23% | 44.86 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
18.27%
5.47
|
18.82%
5.31
|
9.69%
10.32
|
3.33%
30.06
|
0.86%
116.73
|
0.18%
566.57
|
| 1 |
12.24%
8.17
|
12.61%
7.93
|
6.49%
15.4
|
2.23%
44.86
|
0.57%
174.22
|
0.12%
846.02
|
| 2 |
4.1%
24.39
|
4.22%
23.68
|
2.17%
45.98
|
0.75%
133.9
|
0.19%
520.02
|
0.04%
2525.25
|
| 3 |
0.92%
109.21
|
0.94%
106.02
|
0.49%
205.85
|
0.17%
599.52
|
0.04%
2331.0
|
0.01%
11363.64
|
| 4 |
0.15%
651.89
|
0.16%
632.91
|
0.08%
1228.5
|
0.03%
3584.23
|
0.01%
13888.89
|
0.0%
66666.67
|
| 5 |
0.02%
4854.37
|
0.02%
4716.98
|
0.01%
9174.31
|
0.0%
27027.03
|
0.0%
100000.0
|
0.0%
500000.0
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.08%
·
Fair:
1310.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 48.83% | 51.17% |
| 1.5 | 14.54% | 85.46% |
| 2.5 | 3.06% | 96.94% |
| 3.5 | 0.49% | 99.51% |
| 4.5 | 0.06% | 99.94% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 1.5 | 27.53% | 72.47% |
| 2.5 | 8.59% | 91.41% |
| 3.5 | 2.09% | 97.91% |
| 4.5 | 0.41% | 99.59% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.27% | 5.47 |
| 1 | 31.06% | 3.22 |
| 2 | 26.40% | 3.79 |
| 3 | 14.96% | 6.69 |
| 4 | 6.36% | 15.73 |
| 5+ | 2.96% | 33.77 |
|
Over 2.5 24.28%
Under 2.5 75.72%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
22.28%
Draw
34.81%
Away Win
42.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.28%
Under 2.5
75.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
31.4%
No
68.6%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 1.29% 77.72 | 5.13% 19.5 | 93.58% 1.07 |
| -1.5 | 6.42% 15.59 | — | 93.58% 1.07 |
| -1.0 | 6.42% 15.59 | 16.98% 5.89 | 76.61% 1.31 |
| -0.5 | 23.39% 4.27 | — | 76.61% 1.31 |
| 0 (PK) | 23.39% 4.27 | 33.22% 3.01 | 43.38% 2.31 |
| +0.5 | 56.62% 1.77 | — | 43.38% 2.31 |
| +1.0 | 56.62% 1.77 | 26.1% 3.83 | 17.28% 5.79 |
| +1.5 | 82.72% 1.21 | — | 17.28% 5.79 |
| +2.0 | 82.72% 1.21 | 12.12% 8.25 | 5.16% 19.38 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
