Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.45%
Fair Odds 2.2
Draw
28.36%
Fair Odds 3.53
Away Win
26.19%
Fair Odds 3.82
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.66% Fair Odds 7.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.2 —
Draw 3.53 —
Away Win 3.82 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.66% 7.9
2 1-0 12.41% 8.06
3 0-1 8.98% 11.14
4 2-1 8.93% 11.2
5 0-0 8.8% 11.36
6 2-0 8.75% 11.43
7 1-2 6.46% 15.49
8 0-2 4.58% 21.84
9 2-2 4.55% 21.97
10 3-1 4.2% 23.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.8%
11.36
8.98%
11.14
4.58%
21.84
1.56%
64.22
0.4%
251.83
0.08%
1234.57
1
12.41%
8.06
12.66%
7.9
6.46%
15.49
2.2%
45.55
0.56%
178.6
0.11%
875.66
2
8.75%
11.43
8.93%
11.2
4.55%
21.97
1.55%
64.61
0.39%
253.36
0.08%
1242.24
3
4.11%
24.31
4.2%
23.84
2.14%
46.74
0.73%
137.46
0.19%
539.08
0.04%
2645.5
4
1.45%
68.97
1.48%
67.62
0.75%
132.59
0.26%
390.02
0.07%
1529.05
0.01%
7518.8
5
0.41%
244.56
0.42%
239.81
0.21%
470.15
0.07%
1383.13
0.02%
5434.78
0.0%
26315.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.4% · Fair: 251.95
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.80% 11.36
1 21.39% 4.67
2 25.99% 3.85
3 21.05% 4.75
4 12.79% 7.82
5+ 9.97% 10.03
Over 2.5 43.81% Under 2.5 56.19%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.45%
Draw 28.36%
Away Win 26.19%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.81%
Under 2.5 56.19%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.33%
No 51.67%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.41% 11.9 13.78% 7.26 77.82% 1.29
-1.5 22.18% 4.51 — 77.82% 1.29
-1.0 22.18% 4.51 23.75% 4.21 54.06% 1.85
-0.5 45.94% 2.18 — 54.06% 1.85
0 (PK) 45.94% 2.18 26.81% 3.73 27.25% 3.67
+0.5 72.75% 1.37 — 27.25% 3.67
+1.0 72.75% 1.37 17.18% 5.82 10.06% 9.94
+1.5 89.94% 1.11 — 10.06% 9.94
+2.0 89.94% 1.11 7.21% 13.87 2.85% 35.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.