Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.64%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
30.1%
Fair Odds 3.32
Away Win
29.25%
Fair Odds 3.42
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.22% Fair Odds 7.56

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 3.32 —
Away Win 3.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.22% 7.56
2 1-0 12.96% 7.71
3 0-1 10.75% 9.3
4 0-0 10.54% 9.49
5 2-1 8.13% 12.3
6 2-0 7.97% 12.54
7 1-2 6.74% 14.83
8 0-2 5.48% 18.24
9 2-2 4.15% 24.11
10 3-1 3.33% 29.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.54%
9.49
10.75%
9.3
5.48%
18.24
1.86%
53.64
0.48%
210.35
0.1%
1030.93
1
12.96%
7.71
13.22%
7.56
6.74%
14.83
2.29%
43.61
0.58%
171.03
0.12%
838.22
2
7.97%
12.54
8.13%
12.3
4.15%
24.11
1.41%
70.91
0.36%
278.09
0.07%
1362.4
3
3.27%
30.59
3.33%
29.99
1.7%
58.81
0.58%
172.95
0.15%
678.43
0.03%
3322.26
4
1.01%
99.48
1.03%
97.53
0.52%
191.24
0.18%
562.43
0.05%
2207.51
0.01%
10869.57
5
0.25%
404.37
0.25%
396.51
0.13%
777.6
0.04%
2288.33
0.01%
8928.57
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.24% · Fair: 425.17
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.54% 9.49
1 23.71% 4.22
2 26.68% 3.75
3 20.01% 5.00
4 11.26% 8.88
5+ 7.80% 12.82
Over 2.5 39.07% Under 2.5 60.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.64%
Draw 30.10%
Away Win 29.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.07%
Under 2.5 60.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.25%
No 54.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.09% 16.41 11.88% 8.42 82.03% 1.22
-1.5 17.97% 5.56 — 82.03% 1.22
-1.0 17.97% 5.56 22.99% 4.35 59.04% 1.69
-0.5 40.96% 2.44 — 59.04% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.96% 2.44 28.54% 3.5 30.51% 3.28
+0.5 69.49% 1.44 — 30.51% 3.28
+1.0 69.49% 1.44 19.06% 5.25 11.44% 8.74
+1.5 88.56% 1.13 — 11.44% 8.74
+2.0 88.56% 1.13 8.17% 12.24 3.28% 30.51

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.