Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
59.71%
Fair Odds 1.67
Draw
22.5%
Fair Odds 4.44
Away Win
17.79%
Fair Odds 5.62
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.96% Fair Odds 10.04

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.67 —
Draw 4.44 —
Away Win 5.62 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.96% 10.04
2 1-1 9.91% 10.09
3 2-0 9.86% 10.14
4 1-0 9.81% 10.19
5 3-1 6.67% 14.99
6 3-0 6.6% 15.14
7 2-2 5.03% 19.89
8 1-2 5.0% 19.99
9 0-1 4.93% 20.29
10 0-0 4.88% 20.49
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.88%
20.49
4.93%
20.29
2.49%
40.18
0.84%
119.33
0.21%
472.59
0.04%
2341.92
1
9.81%
10.19
9.91%
10.09
5.0%
19.99
1.68%
59.37
0.43%
235.13
0.09%
1164.14
2
9.86%
10.14
9.96%
10.04
5.03%
19.89
1.69%
59.07
0.43%
233.97
0.09%
1158.75
3
6.6%
15.14
6.67%
14.99
3.37%
29.68
1.13%
88.17
0.29%
349.16
0.06%
1730.1
4
3.32%
30.13
3.35%
29.83
1.69%
59.07
0.57%
175.47
0.14%
694.93
0.03%
3436.43
5
1.33%
74.95
1.35%
74.21
0.68%
146.95
0.23%
436.49
0.06%
1727.12
0.01%
8547.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.75% · Fair: 57.03
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.6% 13.4%
1.5 59.67% 40.33%
2.5 32.6% 67.4%
3.5 14.47% 85.53%
4.5 5.36% 94.64%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.58% 36.42%
1.5 26.79% 73.21%
2.5 8.21% 91.79%
3.5 1.96% 98.04%
4.5 0.38% 99.62%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.88% 20.49
1 14.74% 6.79
2 22.25% 4.49
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.91% 5.91
5+ 18.81% 5.32
Over 2.5 58.13% Under 2.5 41.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 59.71%
Draw 22.50%
Away Win 17.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.13%
Under 2.5 41.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.06%
No 44.94%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 18.3% 5.46 18.47% 5.41 63.22% 1.58
-1.5 36.78% 2.72 — 63.22% 1.58
-1.0 36.78% 2.72 23.77% 4.21 39.46% 2.53
-0.5 60.54% 1.65 — 39.46% 2.53
0 (PK) 60.54% 1.65 21.11% 4.74 18.35% 5.45
+0.5 81.65% 1.22 — 18.35% 5.45
+1.0 81.65% 1.22 11.94% 8.37 6.41% 15.61
+1.5 93.59% 1.07 — 6.41% 15.61
+2.0 93.59% 1.07 4.66% 21.44 1.74% 57.33

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.