Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
56.93%
Fair Odds 1.76
Draw
23.75%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
19.32%
Fair Odds 5.18
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.55% Fair Odds 9.48

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.76 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 5.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.55% 9.48
2 1-0 10.45% 9.57
3 2-1 9.92% 10.08
4 2-0 9.82% 10.18
5 3-1 6.22% 16.09
6 3-0 6.15% 16.25
7 0-1 5.61% 17.82
8 0-0 5.56% 17.99
9 1-2 5.33% 18.76
10 2-2 5.01% 19.96
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.56%
17.99
5.61%
17.82
2.83%
35.28
0.95%
104.79
0.24%
414.94
0.05%
2053.39
1
10.45%
9.57
10.55%
9.48
5.33%
18.76
1.79%
55.74
0.45%
220.75
0.09%
1092.9
2
9.82%
10.18
9.92%
10.08
5.01%
19.96
1.69%
59.29
0.43%
234.85
0.09%
1162.79
3
6.15%
16.25
6.22%
16.09
3.14%
31.85
1.06%
94.62
0.27%
374.67
0.05%
1855.29
4
2.89%
34.57
2.92%
34.23
1.48%
67.78
0.5%
201.33
0.13%
797.45
0.03%
3952.57
5
1.09%
91.94
1.1%
91.02
0.55%
180.25
0.19%
535.33
0.05%
2118.64
0.01%
10526.32
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.32% · Fair: 75.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.74% 15.26%
1.5 56.05% 43.95%
2.5 29.09% 70.91%
3.5 12.19% 87.81%
4.5 4.25% 95.75%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.58% 36.42%
1.5 26.79% 73.21%
2.5 8.21% 91.79%
3.5 1.96% 98.04%
4.5 0.38% 99.62%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.56% 17.99
1 16.06% 6.23
2 23.21% 4.31
3 22.36% 4.47
4 16.15% 6.19
5+ 16.66% 6.00
Over 2.5 55.17% Under 2.5 44.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 56.93%
Draw 23.75%
Away Win 19.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.17%
Under 2.5 44.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.88%
No 46.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.95% 6.27 17.72% 5.64 66.33% 1.51
-1.5 33.67% 2.97 — 66.33% 1.51
-1.0 33.67% 2.97 24.05% 4.16 42.28% 2.37
-0.5 57.72% 1.73 — 42.28% 2.37
0 (PK) 57.72% 1.73 22.31% 4.48 19.97% 5.01
+0.5 80.03% 1.25 — 19.97% 5.01
+1.0 80.03% 1.25 12.92% 7.74 7.04% 14.2
+1.5 92.96% 1.08 — 7.04% 14.2
+2.0 92.96% 1.08 5.11% 19.56 1.93% 51.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.