Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.73%
Fair Odds 2.01
Draw
26.8%
Fair Odds 3.73
Away Win
23.48%
Fair Odds 4.26
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.02% Fair Odds 8.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.01 —
Draw 3.73 —
Away Win 4.26 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.02% 8.32
2 1-0 11.9% 8.41
3 2-1 9.43% 10.6
4 2-0 9.34% 10.71
5 0-1 7.65% 13.07
6 0-0 7.58% 13.2
7 1-2 6.07% 16.48
8 3-1 4.94% 20.26
9 3-0 4.89% 20.46
10 2-2 4.76% 20.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.58%
13.2
7.65%
13.07
3.86%
25.87
1.3%
76.85
0.33%
304.41
0.07%
1506.02
1
11.9%
8.41
12.02%
8.32
6.07%
16.48
2.04%
48.95
0.52%
193.87
0.1%
959.69
2
9.34%
10.71
9.43%
10.6
4.76%
20.99
1.6%
62.36
0.4%
246.97
0.08%
1222.49
3
4.89%
20.46
4.94%
20.26
2.49%
40.12
0.84%
119.16
0.21%
471.92
0.04%
2336.45
4
1.92%
52.13
1.94%
51.62
0.98%
102.21
0.33%
303.58
0.08%
1201.92
0.02%
5952.38
5
0.6%
166.03
0.61%
164.37
0.31%
325.52
0.1%
967.12
0.03%
3831.42
0.01%
18867.92
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 162.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.58% 36.42%
1.5 26.79% 73.21%
2.5 8.21% 91.79%
3.5 1.96% 98.04%
4.5 0.38% 99.62%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.58% 13.20
1 19.55% 5.12
2 25.22% 3.97
3 21.69% 4.61
4 13.99% 7.15
5+ 11.98% 8.35
Over 2.5 47.65% Under 2.5 52.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.73%
Draw 26.80%
Away Win 23.48%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.65%
Under 2.5 52.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.35%
No 49.65%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.8% 9.26 15.36% 6.51 73.83% 1.35
-1.5 26.17% 3.82 — 73.83% 1.35
-1.0 26.17% 3.82 24.18% 4.14 49.65% 2.01
-0.5 50.35% 1.99 — 49.65% 2.01
0 (PK) 50.35% 1.99 25.28% 3.96 24.37% 4.1
+0.5 75.63% 1.32 — 24.37% 4.1
+1.0 75.63% 1.32 15.55% 6.43 8.81% 11.34
+1.5 91.19% 1.1 — 8.81% 11.34
+2.0 91.19% 1.1 6.36% 15.73 2.46% 40.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.