Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.69%
Fair Odds 1.97
Draw
26.51%
Fair Odds 3.77
Away Win
22.8%
Fair Odds 4.39
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 11.88% Fair Odds 8.41

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.97 —
Draw 3.77 —
Away Win 4.39 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 11.88% 8.41
2 1-1 11.88% 8.41
3 2-0 9.51% 10.52
4 2-1 9.51% 10.52
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 0-1 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 5.94% 16.83
8 3-0 5.07% 19.72
9 3-1 5.07% 19.72
10 2-2 4.75% 21.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.43%
13.46
3.71%
26.93
1.24%
80.78
0.31%
323.1
0.06%
1615.51
1
11.88%
8.41
11.88%
8.41
5.94%
16.83
1.98%
50.49
0.5%
201.94
0.1%
1010.1
2
9.51%
10.52
9.51%
10.52
4.75%
21.04
1.58%
63.11
0.4%
252.46
0.08%
1262.63
3
5.07%
19.72
5.07%
19.72
2.54%
39.44
0.85%
118.33
0.21%
473.26
0.04%
2364.07
4
2.03%
49.3
2.03%
49.3
1.01%
98.61
0.34%
295.86
0.08%
1183.43
0.02%
5917.16
5
0.65%
154.08
0.65%
154.08
0.32%
308.17
0.11%
924.21
0.03%
3703.7
0.01%
18518.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.66% · Fair: 150.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.21% 36.79%
1.5 26.42% 73.58%
2.5 8.03% 91.97%
3.5 1.9% 98.1%
4.5 0.37% 99.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.69%
Draw 26.51%
Away Win 22.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.45%
No 49.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.34% 8.82 15.71% 6.37 72.95% 1.37
-1.5 27.05% 3.7 — 72.95% 1.37
-1.0 27.05% 3.7 24.29% 4.12 48.66% 2.06
-0.5 51.34% 1.95 — 48.66% 2.06
0 (PK) 51.34% 1.95 25.0% 4.0 23.66% 4.23
+0.5 76.34% 1.31 — 23.66% 4.23
+1.0 76.34% 1.31 15.18% 6.59 8.47% 11.8
+1.5 91.53% 1.09 — 8.47% 11.8
+2.0 91.53% 1.09 6.14% 16.3 2.34% 42.77

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.