Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.69%
Fair Odds 2.8
Draw
32.06%
Fair Odds 3.12
Away Win
32.25%
Fair Odds 3.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.52% Fair Odds 7.39

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.8 —
Draw 3.12 —
Away Win 3.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.52% 7.39
2 1-1 13.52% 7.39
3 0-0 13.0% 7.69
4 0-1 13.0% 7.69
5 2-0 7.03% 14.22
6 2-1 7.03% 14.22
7 1-2 6.76% 14.79
8 0-2 6.5% 15.38
9 2-2 3.52% 28.44
10 3-0 2.44% 41.02
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.0%
7.69
13.0%
7.69
6.5%
15.38
2.17%
46.14
0.54%
184.57
0.11%
922.51
1
13.52%
7.39
13.52%
7.39
6.76%
14.79
2.25%
44.37
0.56%
177.46
0.11%
887.31
2
7.03%
14.22
7.03%
14.22
3.52%
28.44
1.17%
85.32
0.29%
341.3
0.06%
1706.48
3
2.44%
41.02
2.44%
41.02
1.22%
82.04
0.41%
246.12
0.1%
984.25
0.02%
4926.11
4
0.63%
157.78
0.63%
157.78
0.32%
315.56
0.11%
946.97
0.03%
3787.88
0.01%
18867.92
5
0.13%
758.73
0.13%
758.73
0.07%
1517.45
0.02%
4545.45
0.01%
18181.82
0.0%
90909.09
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.13% · Fair: 757.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.21% 36.79%
1.5 26.42% 73.58%
2.5 8.03% 91.97%
3.5 1.9% 98.1%
4.5 0.37% 99.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.00% 7.69
1 26.53% 3.77
2 27.06% 3.70
3 18.40% 5.44
4 9.38% 10.66
5+ 5.63% 17.75
Over 2.5 33.41% Under 2.5 66.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.69%
Draw 32.06%
Away Win 32.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.41%
Under 2.5 66.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.87%
No 59.13%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.11% 24.35 9.81% 10.19 86.08% 1.16
-1.5 13.92% 7.19 — 86.08% 1.16
-1.0 13.92% 7.19 21.89% 4.57 64.2% 1.56
-0.5 35.8% 2.79 — 64.2% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.8% 2.79 30.48% 3.28 33.72% 2.97
+0.5 66.28% 1.51 — 33.72% 2.97
+1.0 66.28% 1.51 21.04% 4.75 12.68% 7.89
+1.5 87.32% 1.15 — 12.68% 7.89
+2.0 87.32% 1.15 9.07% 11.03 3.61% 27.7

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.