Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.48%
Fair Odds 4.88
Draw
35.83%
Fair Odds 2.79
Away Win
43.69%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 20.19% Fair Odds 4.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.88 —
Draw 2.79 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 20.19% 4.95
2 0-1 20.19% 4.95
3 1-0 12.11% 8.26
4 1-1 12.11% 8.26
5 0-2 10.09% 9.91
6 1-2 6.06% 16.51
7 2-0 3.63% 27.52
8 2-1 3.63% 27.52
9 0-3 3.36% 29.72
10 1-3 2.02% 49.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
20.19%
4.95
20.19%
4.95
10.09%
9.91
3.36%
29.72
0.84%
118.88
0.17%
594.53
1
12.11%
8.26
12.11%
8.26
6.06%
16.51
2.02%
49.53
0.5%
198.14
0.1%
991.08
2
3.63%
27.52
3.63%
27.52
1.82%
55.03
0.61%
165.1
0.15%
660.5
0.03%
3300.33
3
0.73%
137.59
0.73%
137.59
0.36%
275.18
0.12%
825.76
0.03%
3300.33
0.01%
16393.44
4
0.11%
917.43
0.11%
917.43
0.05%
1834.86
0.02%
5494.51
0.0%
22222.22
0.0%
111111.11
5
0.01%
7633.59
0.01%
7633.59
0.01%
15384.62
0.0%
45454.55
0.0%
200000.0
0.0%
1000000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.06% · Fair: 1572.33
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 45.12% 54.88%
1.5 12.19% 87.81%
2.5 2.31% 97.69%
3.5 0.34% 99.66%
4.5 0.04% 99.96%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 63.21% 36.79%
1.5 26.42% 73.58%
2.5 8.03% 91.97%
3.5 1.9% 98.1%
4.5 0.37% 99.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 20.19% 4.95
1 32.30% 3.10
2 25.84% 3.87
3 13.78% 7.26
4 5.51% 18.14
5+ 2.37% 42.23
Over 2.5 21.66% Under 2.5 78.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.48%
Draw 35.83%
Away Win 43.69%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 21.66%
Under 2.5 78.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 28.52%
No 71.48%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 0.98% 101.9 4.42% 22.64 94.6% 1.06
-1.5 5.4% 18.52 — 94.6% 1.06
-1.0 5.4% 18.52 16.13% 6.2 78.47% 1.27
-0.5 21.53% 4.64 — 78.47% 1.27
0 (PK) 21.53% 4.64 34.25% 2.92 44.22% 2.26
+0.5 55.78% 1.79 — 44.22% 2.26
+1.0 55.78% 1.79 26.88% 3.72 17.34% 5.77
+1.5 82.66% 1.21 — 17.34% 5.77
+2.0 82.66% 1.21 12.27% 8.15 5.07% 19.73

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.