Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.4%
Fair Odds 2.16
Draw
28.34%
Fair Odds 3.53
Away Win
25.26%
Fair Odds 3.96
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.75% Fair Odds 7.84

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.16 —
Draw 3.53 —
Away Win 3.96 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.75% 7.84
2 1-1 12.63% 7.92
3 2-0 9.06% 11.04
4 0-0 8.98% 11.13
5 2-1 8.96% 11.15
6 0-1 8.89% 11.25
7 1-2 6.25% 16.0
8 2-2 4.44% 22.54
9 0-2 4.4% 22.72
10 3-0 4.29% 23.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.98%
11.13
8.89%
11.25
4.4%
22.72
1.45%
68.85
0.36%
278.16
0.07%
1404.49
1
12.75%
7.84
12.63%
7.92
6.25%
16.0
2.06%
48.48
0.51%
195.89
0.1%
989.12
2
9.06%
11.04
8.96%
11.15
4.44%
22.54
1.46%
68.29
0.36%
275.94
0.07%
1392.76
3
4.29%
23.33
4.24%
23.57
2.1%
47.61
0.69%
144.28
0.17%
582.75
0.03%
2941.18
4
1.52%
65.72
1.51%
66.38
0.75%
134.12
0.25%
406.34
0.06%
1642.04
0.01%
8264.46
5
0.43%
231.43
0.43%
233.75
0.21%
472.14
0.07%
1430.62
0.02%
5780.35
0.0%
29411.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.4% · Fair: 250.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.98% 11.13
1 21.65% 4.62
2 26.08% 3.83
3 20.95% 4.77
4 12.62% 7.92
5+ 9.71% 10.30
Over 2.5 43.29% Under 2.5 56.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.40%
Draw 28.34%
Away Win 25.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.29%
Under 2.5 56.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.65%
No 52.35%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.72% 11.46 14.12% 7.08 77.16% 1.3
-1.5 22.84% 4.38 — 77.16% 1.3
-1.0 22.84% 4.38 24.08% 4.15 53.08% 1.88
-0.5 46.92% 2.13 — 53.08% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.92% 2.13 26.8% 3.73 26.27% 3.81
+0.5 73.73% 1.36 — 26.27% 3.81
+1.0 73.73% 1.36 16.79% 5.96 9.48% 10.55
+1.5 90.52% 1.1 — 9.48% 10.55
+2.0 90.52% 1.1 6.86% 14.57 2.62% 38.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.