Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.56%
Fair Odds 2.24
Draw
29.06%
Fair Odds 3.44
Away Win
26.38%
Fair Odds 3.79
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.0% Fair Odds 7.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.24 —
Draw 3.44 —
Away Win 3.79 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.0% 7.69
2 1-1 12.87% 7.77
3 0-0 9.63% 10.38
4 0-1 9.54% 10.49
5 2-0 8.78% 11.39
6 2-1 8.69% 11.51
7 1-2 6.37% 15.69
8 0-2 4.72% 21.18
9 2-2 4.3% 23.25
10 3-0 3.95% 25.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.63%
10.38
9.54%
10.49
4.72%
21.18
1.56%
64.19
0.39%
259.4
0.08%
1310.62
1
13.0%
7.69
12.87%
7.77
6.37%
15.69
2.1%
47.55
0.52%
192.12
0.1%
969.93
2
8.78%
11.39
8.69%
11.51
4.3%
23.25
1.42%
70.45
0.35%
284.66
0.07%
1436.78
3
3.95%
25.32
3.91%
25.57
1.94%
51.66
0.64%
156.54
0.16%
632.51
0.03%
3194.89
4
1.33%
75.01
1.32%
75.77
0.65%
153.07
0.22%
463.82
0.05%
1872.66
0.01%
9433.96
5
0.36%
277.85
0.36%
280.66
0.18%
566.89
0.06%
1718.21
0.01%
6944.44
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.32% · Fair: 307.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.63% 10.38
1 22.54% 4.44
2 26.37% 3.79
3 20.57% 4.86
4 12.03% 8.31
5+ 8.85% 11.30
Over 2.5 41.45% Under 2.5 58.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.56%
Draw 29.06%
Away Win 26.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.45%
Under 2.5 58.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.55%
No 53.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.76% 12.89 13.4% 7.46 78.84% 1.27
-1.5 21.16% 4.73 — 78.84% 1.27
-1.0 21.16% 4.73 23.86% 4.19 54.98% 1.82
-0.5 45.02% 2.22 — 54.98% 1.82
0 (PK) 45.02% 2.22 27.5% 3.64 27.47% 3.64
+0.5 72.53% 1.38 — 27.47% 3.64
+1.0 72.53% 1.38 17.5% 5.71 9.97% 10.03
+1.5 90.03% 1.11 — 9.97% 10.03
+2.0 90.03% 1.11 7.21% 13.87 2.77% 36.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.