Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.22%
Fair Odds 2.31
Draw
29.56%
Fair Odds 3.38
Away Win
27.22%
Fair Odds 3.67
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.16% Fair Odds 7.6

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.31 —
Draw 3.38 —
Away Win 3.67 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.16% 7.6
2 1-1 13.03% 7.67
3 0-0 10.13% 9.87
4 0-1 10.03% 9.97
5 2-0 8.56% 11.69
6 2-1 8.47% 11.8
7 1-2 6.45% 15.5
8 0-2 4.96% 20.15
9 2-2 4.19% 23.85
10 3-0 3.71% 26.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.13%
9.87
10.03%
9.97
4.96%
20.15
1.64%
61.06
0.41%
246.73
0.08%
1245.33
1
13.16%
7.6
13.03%
7.67
6.45%
15.5
2.13%
46.97
0.53%
189.79
0.1%
958.77
2
8.56%
11.69
8.47%
11.8
4.19%
23.85
1.38%
72.26
0.34%
291.97
0.07%
1474.93
3
3.71%
26.97
3.67%
27.24
1.82%
55.03
0.6%
166.75
0.15%
673.85
0.03%
3401.36
4
1.21%
82.98
1.19%
83.82
0.59%
169.32
0.19%
513.08
0.05%
2074.69
0.01%
10416.67
5
0.31%
319.18
0.31%
322.37
0.15%
651.47
0.05%
1972.39
0.01%
8000.0
0.0%
40000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.28% · Fair: 357.78
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.13% 9.87
1 23.19% 4.31
2 26.55% 3.77
3 20.27% 4.93
4 11.60% 8.62
5+ 8.26% 12.11
Over 2.5 40.13% Under 2.5 59.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.22%
Draw 29.56%
Away Win 27.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.13%
Under 2.5 59.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.72%
No 54.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.1% 14.08 12.87% 7.77 80.03% 1.25
-1.5 19.97% 5.01 — 80.03% 1.25
-1.0 19.97% 5.01 23.66% 4.23 56.36% 1.77
-0.5 43.64% 2.29 — 56.36% 1.77
0 (PK) 43.64% 2.29 28.0% 3.57 28.36% 3.53
+0.5 71.64% 1.4 — 28.36% 3.53
+1.0 71.64% 1.4 18.02% 5.55 10.34% 9.67
+1.5 89.66% 1.12 — 10.34% 9.67
+2.0 89.66% 1.12 7.47% 13.4 2.88% 34.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.