Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.31%
Fair Odds 2.42
Draw
30.27%
Fair Odds 3.3
Away Win
28.42%
Fair Odds 3.52
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.36% Fair Odds 7.49

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.42 —
Draw 3.3 —
Away Win 3.52 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.36% 7.49
2 1-1 13.23% 7.56
3 0-0 10.86% 9.21
4 0-1 10.75% 9.3
5 2-0 8.22% 12.17
6 2-1 8.13% 12.29
7 1-2 6.55% 15.28
8 0-2 5.32% 18.79
9 2-2 4.03% 24.84
10 3-0 3.37% 29.69
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.86%
9.21
10.75%
9.3
5.32%
18.79
1.76%
56.93
0.43%
230.04
0.09%
1161.44
1
13.36%
7.49
13.23%
7.56
6.55%
15.28
2.16%
46.29
0.53%
187.02
0.11%
944.29
2
8.22%
12.17
8.13%
12.29
4.03%
24.84
1.33%
75.27
0.33%
304.14
0.07%
1536.1
3
3.37%
29.69
3.33%
29.99
1.65%
60.58
0.54%
183.59
0.13%
741.84
0.03%
3745.32
4
1.04%
96.54
1.03%
97.52
0.51%
197.01
0.17%
597.01
0.04%
2409.64
0.01%
12195.12
5
0.25%
392.46
0.25%
396.35
0.12%
800.64
0.04%
2427.18
0.01%
9803.92
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.23% · Fair: 442.48
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.86% 9.21
1 24.11% 4.15
2 26.76% 3.74
3 19.80% 5.05
4 10.99% 9.10
5+ 7.47% 13.39
Over 2.5 38.26% Under 2.5 61.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.31%
Draw 30.27%
Away Win 28.42%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.26%
Under 2.5 61.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.47%
No 55.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.23% 16.05 12.1% 8.26 81.67% 1.22
-1.5 18.33% 5.46 — 81.67% 1.22
-1.0 18.33% 5.46 23.32% 4.29 58.35% 1.71
-0.5 41.65% 2.4 — 58.35% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.65% 2.4 28.7% 3.48 29.65% 3.37
+0.5 70.35% 1.42 — 29.65% 3.37
+1.0 70.35% 1.42 18.77% 5.33 10.88% 9.19
+1.5 89.12% 1.12 — 10.88% 9.19
+2.0 89.12% 1.12 7.84% 12.76 3.04% 32.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.