Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.19%
Fair Odds 2.76
Draw
32.05%
Fair Odds 3.12
Away Win
31.76%
Fair Odds 3.15
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.65% Fair Odds 7.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.76 —
Draw 3.12 —
Away Win 3.15 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.65% 7.32
2 1-1 13.52% 7.4
3 0-0 13.0% 7.69
4 0-1 12.87% 7.77
5 2-0 7.17% 13.95
6 2-1 7.1% 14.09
7 1-2 6.69% 14.95
8 0-2 6.37% 15.69
9 2-2 3.51% 28.47
10 3-0 2.51% 39.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.0%
7.69
12.87%
7.77
6.37%
15.69
2.1%
47.56
0.52%
192.16
0.1%
970.87
1
13.65%
7.32
13.52%
7.4
6.69%
14.95
2.21%
45.29
0.55%
182.98
0.11%
924.21
2
7.17%
13.95
7.1%
14.09
3.51%
28.47
1.16%
86.27
0.29%
348.55
0.06%
1760.56
3
2.51%
39.86
2.48%
40.26
1.23%
81.34
0.41%
246.49
0.1%
996.02
0.02%
5025.13
4
0.66%
151.86
0.65%
153.37
0.32%
309.89
0.11%
938.97
0.03%
3787.88
0.01%
19230.77
5
0.14%
723.07
0.14%
730.46
0.07%
1474.93
0.02%
4464.29
0.01%
18181.82
0.0%
90909.09
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.13% · Fair: 754.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.00% 7.69
1 26.53% 3.77
2 27.06% 3.70
3 18.40% 5.44
4 9.38% 10.66
5+ 5.63% 17.75
Over 2.5 33.41% Under 2.5 66.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.19%
Draw 32.05%
Away Win 31.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.41%
Under 2.5 66.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.85%
No 59.15%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.24% 23.6 10.0% 10.0 85.77% 1.17
-1.5 14.23% 7.02 — 85.77% 1.17
-1.0 14.23% 7.02 22.09% 4.53 63.67% 1.57
-0.5 36.33% 2.75 — 63.67% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.33% 2.75 30.47% 3.28 33.21% 3.01
+0.5 66.79% 1.5 — 33.21% 3.01
+1.0 66.79% 1.5 20.83% 4.8 12.38% 8.08
+1.5 87.62% 1.14 — 12.38% 8.08
+2.0 87.62% 1.14 8.89% 11.25 3.49% 28.63

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.