Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.86%
Fair Odds 4.02
Draw
34.97%
Fair Odds 2.86
Away Win
40.18%
Fair Odds 2.49
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 17.91% Fair Odds 5.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.02 —
Draw 2.86 —
Away Win 2.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 17.91% 5.58
2 0-1 17.73% 5.64
3 1-0 13.07% 7.65
4 1-1 12.94% 7.73
5 0-2 8.78% 11.4
6 1-2 6.41% 15.61
7 2-0 4.77% 20.96
8 2-1 4.72% 21.17
9 0-3 2.9% 34.53
10 2-2 2.34% 42.77
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
17.91%
5.58
17.73%
5.64
8.78%
11.4
2.9%
34.53
0.72%
139.53
0.14%
704.72
1
13.07%
7.65
12.94%
7.73
6.41%
15.61
2.11%
47.31
0.52%
191.13
0.1%
965.25
2
4.77%
20.96
4.72%
21.17
2.34%
42.77
0.77%
129.6
0.19%
523.56
0.04%
2645.5
3
1.16%
86.13
1.15%
87.0
0.57%
175.78
0.19%
532.48
0.05%
2150.54
0.01%
10869.57
4
0.21%
471.92
0.21%
476.64
0.1%
963.39
0.03%
2915.45
0.01%
11764.71
0.0%
58823.53
5
0.03%
3236.25
0.03%
3267.97
0.02%
6578.95
0.01%
20000.0
0.0%
83333.33
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.07% · Fair: 1472.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 51.81% 48.19%
1.5 16.63% 83.37%
2.5 3.79% 96.21%
3.5 0.66% 99.34%
4.5 0.09% 99.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 17.91% 5.58
1 30.80% 3.25
2 26.49% 3.78
3 15.19% 6.58
4 6.53% 15.31
5+ 3.09% 32.36
Over 2.5 24.81% Under 2.5 75.19%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.86%
Draw 34.97%
Away Win 40.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 24.81%
Under 2.5 75.19%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 32.56%
No 67.44%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.67% 59.86 6.03% 16.58 92.3% 1.08
-1.5 7.7% 12.99 — 92.3% 1.08
-1.0 7.7% 12.99 18.4% 5.43 73.9% 1.35
-0.5 26.1% 3.83 — 73.9% 1.35
0 (PK) 26.1% 3.83 33.38% 3.0 40.52% 2.47
+0.5 59.48% 1.68 — 40.52% 2.47
+1.0 59.48% 1.68 24.95% 4.01 15.56% 6.42
+1.5 84.44% 1.18 — 15.56% 6.42
+2.0 84.44% 1.18 11.09% 9.02 4.48% 22.35

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.