Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
62.64%
Fair Odds 1.6
Draw
21.37%
Fair Odds 4.68
Away Win
16.0%
Fair Odds 6.25
Most Likely Score
2 - 0
Probability 10.12% Fair Odds 9.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.6 —
Draw 4.68 —
Away Win 6.25 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-0 10.12% 9.88
2 2-1 9.92% 10.08
3 1-0 9.55% 10.47
4 1-1 9.36% 10.68
5 3-0 7.15% 13.98
6 3-1 7.01% 14.26
7 2-2 4.86% 20.57
8 1-2 4.59% 21.8
9 0-0 4.5% 22.2
10 0-1 4.41% 22.65
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.5%
22.2
4.41%
22.65
2.16%
46.23
0.71%
141.5
0.17%
577.7
0.03%
2949.85
1
9.55%
10.47
9.36%
10.68
4.59%
21.8
1.5%
66.75
0.37%
272.48
0.07%
1390.82
2
10.12%
9.88
9.92%
10.08
4.86%
20.57
1.59%
62.97
0.39%
257.0
0.08%
1310.62
3
7.15%
13.98
7.01%
14.26
3.44%
29.11
1.12%
89.11
0.27%
363.77
0.05%
1855.29
4
3.79%
26.37
3.72%
26.91
1.82%
54.92
0.59%
168.12
0.15%
686.34
0.03%
3496.5
5
1.61%
62.2
1.58%
63.47
0.77%
129.53
0.25%
396.51
0.06%
1618.12
0.01%
8264.46
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.18% · Fair: 45.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.0% 12.0%
1.5 62.55% 37.45%
2.5 35.58% 64.42%
3.5 16.51% 83.48%
4.5 6.41% 93.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.50% 22.20
1 13.97% 7.16
2 21.65% 4.62
3 22.37% 4.47
4 17.34% 5.77
5+ 20.18% 4.96
Over 2.5 59.88% Under 2.5 40.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 62.64%
Draw 21.37%
Away Win 16.00%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.88%
Under 2.5 40.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.97%
No 45.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 20.72% 4.83 19.23% 5.2 60.05% 1.67
-1.5 39.95% 2.5 — 60.05% 1.67
-1.0 39.95% 2.5 23.57% 4.24 36.48% 2.74
-0.5 63.51% 1.57 — 36.48% 2.74
0 (PK) 63.51% 1.57 20.01% 5.0 16.48% 6.07
+0.5 83.52% 1.2 — 16.48% 6.07
+1.0 83.52% 1.2 10.89% 9.18 5.58% 17.91
+1.5 94.41% 1.06 — 5.58% 17.91
+2.0 94.41% 1.06 4.11% 24.34 1.47% 67.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.