Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
62.44%
Fair Odds 1.6
Draw
21.46%
Fair Odds 4.66
Away Win
16.1%
Fair Odds 6.21
Most Likely Score
2 - 0
Probability 10.13% Fair Odds 9.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.6 —
Draw 4.66 —
Away Win 6.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-0 10.13% 9.87
2 2-1 9.93% 10.07
3 1-0 9.6% 10.42
4 1-1 9.41% 10.63
5 3-0 7.12% 14.04
6 3-1 6.98% 14.32
7 2-2 4.86% 20.56
8 1-2 4.61% 21.69
9 0-0 4.55% 21.98
10 0-1 4.46% 22.43
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.55%
21.98
4.46%
22.43
2.19%
45.77
0.71%
140.1
0.17%
571.76
0.03%
2915.45
1
9.6%
10.42
9.41%
10.63
4.61%
21.69
1.51%
66.4
0.37%
271.0
0.07%
1383.13
2
10.13%
9.87
9.93%
10.07
4.86%
20.56
1.59%
62.94
0.39%
256.87
0.08%
1310.62
3
7.12%
14.04
6.98%
14.32
3.42%
29.23
1.12%
89.49
0.27%
365.23
0.05%
1862.2
4
3.76%
26.61
3.68%
27.15
1.8%
55.41
0.59%
169.64
0.14%
692.52
0.03%
3533.57
5
1.59%
63.06
1.55%
64.34
0.76%
131.32
0.25%
401.93
0.06%
1642.04
0.01%
8403.36
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.14% · Fair: 46.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.87% 12.12%
1.5 62.29% 37.71%
2.5 35.31% 64.69%
3.5 16.32% 83.67%
4.5 6.31% 93.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.55% 21.98
1 14.06% 7.11
2 21.72% 4.60
3 22.37% 4.47
4 17.28% 5.79
5+ 20.01% 5.00
Over 2.5 59.67% Under 2.5 40.33%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 62.44%
Draw 21.46%
Away Win 16.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.67%
Under 2.5 40.33%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.89%
No 45.11%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 20.52% 4.87 19.19% 5.21 60.29% 1.66
-1.5 39.71% 2.52 — 60.29% 1.66
-1.0 39.71% 2.52 23.6% 4.24 36.69% 2.73
-0.5 63.31% 1.58 — 36.69% 2.73
0 (PK) 63.31% 1.58 20.1% 4.98 16.59% 6.03
+0.5 83.41% 1.2 — 16.59% 6.03
+1.0 83.41% 1.2 10.96% 9.12 5.62% 17.78
+1.5 94.37% 1.06 — 5.62% 17.78
+2.0 94.37% 1.06 4.14% 24.16 1.49% 67.29

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.