Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
55.86%
Fair Odds 1.79
Draw
24.49%
Fair Odds 4.08
Away Win
19.65%
Fair Odds 5.09
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 11.17% Fair Odds 8.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.79 —
Draw 4.08 —
Away Win 5.09 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 11.17% 8.95
2 1-1 10.94% 9.14
3 2-0 10.05% 9.95
4 2-1 9.85% 10.15
5 0-0 6.2% 16.12
6 0-1 6.08% 16.45
7 3-0 6.03% 16.58
8 3-1 5.91% 16.92
9 1-2 5.36% 18.65
10 2-2 4.83% 20.72
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2%
16.12
6.08%
16.45
2.98%
33.57
0.97%
102.75
0.24%
419.46
0.05%
2141.33
1
11.17%
8.95
10.94%
9.14
5.36%
18.65
1.75%
57.09
0.43%
232.99
0.08%
1189.06
2
10.05%
9.95
9.85%
10.15
4.83%
20.72
1.58%
63.43
0.39%
258.87
0.08%
1321.0
3
6.03%
16.58
5.91%
16.92
2.9%
34.53
0.95%
105.72
0.23%
431.41
0.05%
2202.64
4
2.71%
36.85
2.66%
37.6
1.3%
76.74
0.43%
234.91
0.1%
958.77
0.02%
4901.96
5
0.98%
102.36
0.96%
104.46
0.47%
213.17
0.15%
652.74
0.04%
2666.67
0.01%
13513.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.09% · Fair: 91.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.20% 16.12
1 17.25% 5.80
2 23.97% 4.17
3 22.22% 4.50
4 15.44% 6.48
5+ 14.92% 6.70
Over 2.5 52.58% Under 2.5 47.42%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 55.86%
Draw 24.49%
Away Win 19.65%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.58%
Under 2.5 47.42%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.14%
No 47.86%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.83% 6.74 17.43% 5.74 67.74% 1.48
-1.5 32.26% 3.1 — 67.74% 1.48
-1.0 32.26% 3.1 24.38% 4.1 43.37% 2.31
-0.5 56.63% 1.77 — 43.37% 2.31
0 (PK) 56.63% 1.77 23.03% 4.34 20.33% 4.92
+0.5 79.67% 1.26 — 20.33% 4.92
+1.0 79.67% 1.26 13.27% 7.53 7.06% 14.16
+1.5 92.94% 1.08 — 7.06% 14.16
+2.0 92.94% 1.08 5.17% 19.36 1.9% 52.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.