Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.65%
Fair Odds 1.94
Draw
26.31%
Fair Odds 3.8
Away Win
22.04%
Fair Odds 4.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.03% Fair Odds 8.31

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.94 —
Draw 3.8 —
Away Win 4.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.03% 8.31
2 1-1 11.79% 8.48
3 2-0 9.75% 10.26
4 2-1 9.55% 10.47
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 0-1 7.28% 13.74
7 1-2 5.78% 17.31
8 3-0 5.26% 19.0
9 3-1 5.16% 19.39
10 2-2 4.68% 21.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.28%
13.74
3.57%
28.04
1.17%
85.83
0.29%
350.39
0.06%
1788.91
1
12.03%
8.31
11.79%
8.48
5.78%
17.31
1.89%
52.98
0.46%
216.26
0.09%
1103.75
2
9.75%
10.26
9.55%
10.47
4.68%
21.37
1.53%
65.41
0.37%
266.95
0.07%
1362.4
3
5.26%
19.0
5.16%
19.39
2.53%
39.57
0.83%
121.12
0.2%
494.32
0.04%
2525.25
4
2.13%
46.92
2.09%
47.87
1.02%
97.7
0.33%
299.04
0.08%
1221.0
0.02%
6211.18
5
0.69%
144.8
0.68%
147.75
0.33%
301.57
0.11%
923.36
0.03%
3773.58
0.01%
19230.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.69% · Fair: 144.24
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.65%
Draw 26.31%
Away Win 22.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.11%
No 49.89%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.81% 8.47 16.04% 6.23 72.14% 1.39
-1.5 27.86% 3.59 — 72.14% 1.39
-1.0 27.86% 3.59 24.47% 4.09 47.67% 2.1
-0.5 52.33% 1.91 — 47.67% 2.1
0 (PK) 52.33% 1.91 24.81% 4.03 22.86% 4.37
+0.5 77.14% 1.3 — 22.86% 4.37
+1.0 77.14% 1.3 14.8% 6.75 8.05% 12.42
+1.5 91.95% 1.09 — 8.05% 12.42
+2.0 91.95% 1.09 5.87% 17.03 2.18% 45.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.