Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.66%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
27.96%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
24.38%
Fair Odds 4.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.73% Fair Odds 7.86

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 4.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.73% 7.86
2 1-1 12.47% 8.02
3 2-0 9.29% 10.76
4 2-1 9.1% 10.98
5 0-0 8.72% 11.47
6 0-1 8.54% 11.71
7 1-2 6.11% 16.36
8 3-0 4.52% 22.12
9 2-2 4.46% 22.42
10 3-1 4.43% 22.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.72%
11.47
8.54%
11.71
4.19%
23.89
1.37%
73.14
0.34%
298.51
0.07%
1522.07
1
12.73%
7.86
12.47%
8.02
6.11%
16.36
2.0%
50.1
0.49%
204.46
0.1%
1042.75
2
9.29%
10.76
9.1%
10.98
4.46%
22.42
1.46%
68.62
0.36%
280.11
0.07%
1428.57
3
4.52%
22.12
4.43%
22.57
2.17%
46.06
0.71%
141.0
0.17%
575.71
0.03%
2932.55
4
1.65%
60.6
1.62%
61.84
0.79%
126.2
0.26%
386.25
0.06%
1577.29
0.01%
8064.52
5
0.48%
207.56
0.47%
211.77
0.23%
432.15
0.08%
1322.75
0.02%
5405.41
0.0%
27777.78
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.44% · Fair: 224.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.72% 11.47
1 21.27% 4.70
2 25.95% 3.85
3 21.10% 4.74
4 12.87% 7.77
5+ 10.09% 9.91
Over 2.5 44.07% Under 2.5 55.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.66%
Draw 27.96%
Away Win 24.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.07%
Under 2.5 55.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.96%
No 52.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.36% 10.68 14.59% 6.85 76.05% 1.31
-1.5 23.95% 4.17 — 76.05% 1.31
-1.0 23.95% 4.17 24.28% 4.12 51.77% 1.93
-0.5 48.23% 2.07 — 51.77% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.23% 2.07 26.42% 3.78 25.34% 3.95
+0.5 74.66% 1.34 — 25.34% 3.95
+1.0 74.66% 1.34 16.3% 6.14 9.05% 11.05
+1.5 90.95% 1.1 — 9.05% 11.05
+2.0 90.95% 1.1 6.57% 15.21 2.47% 40.43

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.