Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.25%
Fair Odds 2.42
Draw
30.42%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
28.32%
Fair Odds 3.53
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.52% Fair Odds 7.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.42 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 3.53 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.52% 7.4
2 1-1 13.25% 7.55
3 0-0 11.08% 9.03
4 0-1 10.86% 9.21
5 2-0 8.25% 12.13
6 2-1 8.08% 12.37
7 1-2 6.49% 15.41
8 0-2 5.32% 18.79
9 2-2 3.96% 25.25
10 3-0 3.35% 29.82
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.08%
9.03
10.86%
9.21
5.32%
18.79
1.74%
57.53
0.43%
234.85
0.08%
1197.6
1
13.52%
7.4
13.25%
7.55
6.49%
15.41
2.12%
47.16
0.52%
192.49
0.1%
982.32
2
8.25%
12.13
8.08%
12.37
3.96%
25.25
1.29%
77.31
0.32%
315.56
0.06%
1610.31
3
3.35%
29.82
3.29%
30.43
1.61%
62.1
0.53%
190.11
0.13%
775.8
0.03%
3952.57
4
1.02%
97.77
1.0%
99.77
0.49%
203.62
0.16%
623.44
0.04%
2544.53
0.01%
12987.01
5
0.25%
400.64
0.24%
408.83
0.12%
834.72
0.04%
2557.54
0.01%
10416.67
0.0%
52631.58
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.22% · Fair: 462.11
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.08% 9.03
1 24.38% 4.10
2 26.81% 3.73
3 19.66% 5.09
4 10.82% 9.25
5+ 7.25% 13.79
Over 2.5 37.73% Under 2.5 62.27%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.25%
Draw 30.42%
Away Win 28.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.73%
Under 2.5 62.27%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.03%
No 55.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.15% 16.25 12.06% 8.29 81.78% 1.22
-1.5 18.22% 5.49 — 81.78% 1.22
-1.0 18.22% 5.49 23.38% 4.28 58.4% 1.71
-0.5 41.6% 2.4 — 58.4% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.6% 2.4 28.85% 3.47 29.55% 3.38
+0.5 70.45% 1.42 — 29.55% 3.38
+1.0 70.45% 1.42 18.78% 5.32 10.77% 9.29
+1.5 89.23% 1.12 — 10.77% 9.29
+2.0 89.23% 1.12 7.78% 12.85 2.98% 33.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.