Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.28%
Fair Odds 2.68
Draw
31.83%
Fair Odds 3.14
Away Win
30.89%
Fair Odds 3.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.76% Fair Odds 7.26

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.68 —
Draw 3.14 —
Away Win 3.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.76% 7.26
2 1-1 13.49% 7.41
3 0-0 12.75% 7.85
4 0-1 12.49% 8.01
5 2-0 7.43% 13.45
6 2-1 7.28% 13.73
7 1-2 6.61% 15.13
8 0-2 6.12% 16.34
9 2-2 3.57% 28.02
10 3-0 2.68% 37.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.75%
7.85
12.49%
8.01
6.12%
16.34
2.0%
50.02
0.49%
204.16
0.1%
1041.67
1
13.76%
7.26
13.49%
7.41
6.61%
15.13
2.16%
46.31
0.53%
189.04
0.1%
964.32
2
7.43%
13.45
7.28%
13.73
3.57%
28.02
1.17%
85.76
0.29%
350.02
0.06%
1785.71
3
2.68%
37.37
2.62%
38.13
1.29%
77.82
0.42%
238.21
0.1%
972.76
0.02%
4950.5
4
0.72%
138.41
0.71%
141.24
0.35%
288.27
0.11%
882.61
0.03%
3597.12
0.01%
18518.52
5
0.16%
640.61
0.15%
654.02
0.07%
1335.11
0.02%
4081.63
0.01%
16666.67
0.0%
83333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.14% · Fair: 705.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.75% 7.85
1 26.26% 3.81
2 27.04% 3.70
3 18.57% 5.39
4 9.56% 10.46
5+ 5.82% 17.17
Over 2.5 33.96% Under 2.5 66.04%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.28%
Draw 31.83%
Away Win 30.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.96%
Under 2.5 66.04%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 41.25%
No 58.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.58% 21.85 10.43% 9.59 84.99% 1.18
-1.5 15.01% 6.66 — 84.99% 1.18
-1.0 15.01% 6.66 22.45% 4.45 62.54% 1.6
-0.5 37.46% 2.67 — 62.54% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.46% 2.67 30.25% 3.31 32.29% 3.1
+0.5 67.71% 1.48 — 32.29% 3.1
+1.0 67.71% 1.48 20.37% 4.91 11.91% 8.39
+1.5 88.09% 1.14 — 11.91% 8.39
+2.0 88.09% 1.14 8.59% 11.65 3.33% 30.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.