Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
52.37%
Fair Odds 1.91
Draw
26.11%
Fair Odds 3.83
Away Win
21.52%
Fair Odds 4.65
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.06% Fair Odds 8.29

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.91 —
Draw 3.83 —
Away Win 4.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.06% 8.29
2 1-1 11.7% 8.55
3 2-0 9.89% 10.11
4 2-1 9.59% 10.43
5 0-0 7.35% 13.6
6 0-1 7.13% 14.02
7 1-2 5.67% 17.63
8 3-0 5.41% 18.5
9 3-1 5.24% 19.07
10 2-2 4.65% 21.49
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.35%
13.6
7.13%
14.02
3.46%
28.91
1.12%
89.4
0.27%
368.73
0.05%
1901.14
1
12.06%
8.29
11.7%
8.55
5.67%
17.63
1.83%
54.51
0.44%
224.82
0.09%
1158.75
2
9.89%
10.11
9.59%
10.43
4.65%
21.49
1.5%
66.48
0.36%
274.12
0.07%
1412.43
3
5.41%
18.5
5.24%
19.07
2.54%
39.32
0.82%
121.61
0.2%
501.5
0.04%
2583.98
4
2.22%
45.12
2.15%
46.51
1.04%
95.9
0.34%
296.65
0.08%
1222.49
0.02%
6289.31
5
0.73%
137.55
0.71%
141.8
0.34%
292.4
0.11%
904.16
0.03%
3731.34
0.01%
19230.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.73% · Fair: 137.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.35% 13.60
1 19.19% 5.21
2 25.05% 3.99
3 21.79% 4.59
4 14.22% 7.03
5+ 12.40% 8.07
Over 2.5 48.41% Under 2.5 51.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 52.37%
Draw 26.11%
Away Win 21.52%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.41%
Under 2.5 51.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.05%
No 49.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.21% 8.19 16.29% 6.14 71.49% 1.4
-1.5 28.51% 3.51 — 71.49% 1.4
-1.0 28.51% 3.51 24.56% 4.07 46.93% 2.13
-0.5 53.07% 1.88 — 46.93% 2.13
0 (PK) 53.07% 1.88 24.61% 4.06 22.32% 4.48
+0.5 77.68% 1.29 — 22.32% 4.48
+1.0 77.68% 1.29 14.53% 6.88 7.79% 12.83
+1.5 92.21% 1.08 — 7.79% 12.83
+2.0 92.21% 1.08 5.7% 17.54 2.09% 47.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.