Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
52.13%
Fair Odds 1.92
Draw
26.21%
Fair Odds 3.81
Away Win
21.66%
Fair Odds 4.62
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.11% Fair Odds 8.26

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.92 —
Draw 3.81 —
Away Win 4.62 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.11% 8.26
2 1-1 11.74% 8.52
3 2-0 9.87% 10.13
4 2-1 9.57% 10.45
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 0-1 7.2% 13.88
7 1-2 5.7% 17.56
8 3-0 5.36% 18.65
9 3-1 5.2% 19.23
10 2-2 4.64% 21.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.2%
13.88
3.49%
28.62
1.13%
88.51
0.27%
364.96
0.05%
1879.7
1
12.11%
8.26
11.74%
8.52
5.7%
17.56
1.84%
54.3
0.45%
223.91
0.09%
1154.73
2
9.87%
10.13
9.57%
10.45
4.64%
21.54
1.5%
66.63
0.36%
274.73
0.07%
1416.43
3
5.36%
18.65
5.2%
19.23
2.52%
39.65
0.82%
122.62
0.2%
505.56
0.04%
2604.17
4
2.18%
45.77
2.12%
47.19
1.03%
97.3
0.33%
300.93
0.08%
1240.69
0.02%
6410.26
5
0.71%
140.41
0.69%
144.76
0.34%
298.51
0.11%
923.36
0.03%
3802.28
0.01%
19607.84
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.71% · Fair: 141.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 52.13%
Draw 26.21%
Away Win 21.66%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.93%
No 50.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.05% 8.3 16.21% 6.17 71.74% 1.39
-1.5 28.26% 3.54 — 71.74% 1.39
-1.0 28.26% 3.54 24.56% 4.07 47.18% 2.12
-0.5 52.82% 1.89 — 47.18% 2.12
0 (PK) 52.82% 1.89 24.71% 4.05 22.46% 4.45
+0.5 77.54% 1.29 — 22.46% 4.45
+1.0 77.54% 1.29 14.62% 6.84 7.85% 12.74
+1.5 92.15% 1.09 — 7.85% 12.74
+2.0 92.15% 1.09 5.74% 17.42 2.11% 47.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.