Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.2%
Fair Odds 2.43
Draw
30.58%
Fair Odds 3.27
Away Win
28.22%
Fair Odds 3.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.68% Fair Odds 7.31

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.43 —
Draw 3.27 —
Away Win 3.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.68% 7.31
2 1-1 13.27% 7.54
3 0-0 11.3% 8.85
4 0-1 10.96% 9.12
5 2-0 8.28% 12.08
6 2-1 8.03% 12.46
7 1-2 6.43% 15.54
8 0-2 5.32% 18.8
9 2-2 3.89% 25.69
10 3-0 3.34% 29.96
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.3%
8.85
10.96%
9.12
5.32%
18.8
1.72%
58.16
0.42%
239.81
0.08%
1236.09
1
13.68%
7.31
13.27%
7.54
6.43%
15.54
2.08%
48.06
0.5%
198.22
0.1%
1021.45
2
8.28%
12.08
8.03%
12.46
3.89%
25.69
1.26%
79.44
0.31%
327.65
0.06%
1689.19
3
3.34%
29.96
3.24%
30.89
1.57%
63.69
0.51%
196.97
0.12%
812.35
0.02%
4184.1
4
1.01%
99.05
0.98%
102.1
0.47%
210.53
0.15%
651.04
0.04%
2688.17
0.01%
13888.89
5
0.24%
409.33
0.24%
421.94
0.11%
870.32
0.04%
2688.17
0.01%
11111.11
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.21% · Fair: 482.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.30% 8.85
1 24.64% 4.06
2 26.86% 3.72
3 19.52% 5.12
4 10.64% 9.40
5+ 7.04% 14.21
Over 2.5 37.19% Under 2.5 62.81%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.20%
Draw 30.58%
Away Win 28.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.19%
Under 2.5 62.81%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.58%
No 56.42%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.08% 16.46 12.03% 8.31 81.9% 1.22
-1.5 18.1% 5.52 — 81.9% 1.22
-1.0 18.1% 5.52 23.44% 4.27 58.46% 1.71
-0.5 41.54% 2.41 — 58.46% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.54% 2.41 29.01% 3.45 29.45% 3.4
+0.5 70.55% 1.42 — 29.45% 3.4
+1.0 70.55% 1.42 18.79% 5.32 10.66% 9.38
+1.5 89.34% 1.12 — 10.66% 9.38
+2.0 89.34% 1.12 7.73% 12.94 2.93% 34.15

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.