Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.2%
Fair Odds 2.69
Draw
32.01%
Fair Odds 3.12
Away Win
30.78%
Fair Odds 3.25
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.91% Fair Odds 7.19

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.69 —
Draw 3.12 —
Away Win 3.25 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.91% 7.19
2 1-1 13.5% 7.41
3 0-0 13.0% 7.69
4 0-1 12.61% 7.93
5 2-0 7.44% 13.43
6 2-1 7.22% 13.85
7 1-2 6.55% 15.28
8 0-2 6.12% 16.35
9 2-2 3.5% 28.56
10 3-0 2.65% 37.67
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.0%
7.69
12.61%
7.93
6.12%
16.35
1.98%
50.56
0.48%
208.51
0.09%
1074.11
1
13.91%
7.19
13.5%
7.41
6.55%
15.28
2.12%
47.25
0.51%
194.86
0.1%
1004.02
2
7.44%
13.43
7.22%
13.85
3.5%
28.56
1.13%
88.32
0.27%
364.17
0.05%
1876.17
3
2.65%
37.67
2.58%
38.83
1.25%
80.06
0.4%
247.65
0.1%
1021.45
0.02%
5263.16
4
0.71%
140.81
0.69%
145.16
0.33%
299.31
0.11%
925.93
0.03%
3816.79
0.01%
19607.84
5
0.15%
657.89
0.15%
678.43
0.07%
1398.6
0.02%
4329.0
0.01%
17857.14
0.0%
90909.09
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.13% · Fair: 742.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.00% 7.69
1 26.53% 3.77
2 27.06% 3.70
3 18.40% 5.44
4 9.38% 10.66
5+ 5.63% 17.75
Over 2.5 33.41% Under 2.5 66.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.20%
Draw 32.01%
Away Win 30.78%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.41%
Under 2.5 66.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.79%
No 59.21%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.51% 22.18 10.38% 9.64 85.12% 1.17
-1.5 14.88% 6.72 — 85.12% 1.17
-1.0 14.88% 6.72 22.5% 4.45 62.62% 1.6
-0.5 37.38% 2.68 — 62.62% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.38% 2.68 30.43% 3.29 32.19% 3.11
+0.5 67.81% 1.47 — 32.19% 3.11
+1.0 67.81% 1.47 20.39% 4.9 11.79% 8.48
+1.5 88.21% 1.13 — 11.79% 8.48
+2.0 88.21% 1.13 8.53% 11.73 3.27% 30.62

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.