Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
62.3%
Fair Odds 1.61
Draw
21.67%
Fair Odds 4.61
Away Win
16.02%
Fair Odds 6.24
Most Likely Score
2 - 0
Probability 10.35% Fair Odds 9.66

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.61 —
Draw 4.61 —
Away Win 6.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-0 10.35% 9.66
2 1-0 9.95% 10.05
3 2-1 9.93% 10.07
4 1-1 9.55% 10.47
5 3-0 7.17% 13.94
6 3-1 6.89% 14.52
7 0-0 4.78% 20.91
8 2-2 4.77% 20.97
9 0-1 4.59% 21.78
10 1-2 4.58% 21.81
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
4.59%
21.78
2.2%
45.37
0.71%
141.76
0.17%
590.67
0.03%
3076.92
1
9.95%
10.05
9.55%
10.47
4.58%
21.81
1.47%
68.16
0.35%
284.01
0.07%
1479.29
2
10.35%
9.66
9.93%
10.07
4.77%
20.97
1.53%
65.54
0.37%
273.07
0.07%
1422.48
3
7.17%
13.94
6.89%
14.52
3.31%
30.25
1.06%
94.53
0.25%
393.86
0.05%
2053.39
4
3.73%
26.8
3.58%
27.92
1.72%
58.17
0.55%
181.79
0.13%
757.58
0.03%
3952.57
5
1.55%
64.43
1.49%
67.12
0.72%
139.82
0.23%
437.06
0.05%
1821.49
0.01%
9523.81
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.01% · Fair: 49.79
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.51% 12.49%
1.5 61.52% 38.48%
2.5 34.5% 65.5%
3.5 15.76% 84.24%
4.5 6.01% 93.98%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 62.30%
Draw 21.67%
Away Win 16.02%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.0%
No 46.0%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 20.18% 4.96 19.2% 5.21 60.62% 1.65
-1.5 39.38% 2.54 — 60.62% 1.65
-1.0 39.38% 2.54 23.8% 4.2 36.82% 2.72
-0.5 63.18% 1.58 — 36.82% 2.72
0 (PK) 63.18% 1.58 20.3% 4.93 16.51% 6.06
+0.5 83.49% 1.2 — 16.51% 6.06
+1.0 83.49% 1.2 10.98% 9.1 5.53% 18.09
+1.5 94.47% 1.06 — 5.53% 18.09
+2.0 94.47% 1.06 4.09% 24.45 1.44% 69.52

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.