Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.5%
Fair Odds 1.84
Draw
25.28%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
20.22%
Fair Odds 4.94
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 11.79% Fair Odds 8.48

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.84 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 4.94 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 11.79% 8.48
2 1-1 11.32% 8.83
3 2-0 10.14% 9.86
4 2-1 9.74% 10.27
5 0-0 6.86% 14.59
6 0-1 6.58% 15.19
7 3-0 5.81% 17.2
8 3-1 5.58% 17.91
9 1-2 5.43% 18.4
10 2-2 4.67% 21.4
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.86%
14.59
6.58%
15.19
3.16%
31.65
1.01%
98.91
0.24%
412.2
0.05%
2145.92
1
11.79%
8.48
11.32%
8.83
5.43%
18.4
1.74%
57.51
0.42%
239.64
0.08%
1248.44
2
10.14%
9.86
9.74%
10.27
4.67%
21.4
1.5%
66.87
0.36%
278.63
0.07%
1451.38
3
5.81%
17.2
5.58%
17.91
2.68%
37.32
0.86%
116.63
0.21%
485.91
0.04%
2531.65
4
2.5%
40.0
2.4%
41.66
1.15%
86.8
0.37%
271.22
0.09%
1129.94
0.02%
5882.35
5
0.86%
116.27
0.83%
121.11
0.4%
252.33
0.13%
788.64
0.03%
3289.47
0.01%
17241.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.89% · Fair: 112.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.86% 14.59
1 18.38% 5.44
2 24.62% 4.06
3 22.00% 4.55
4 14.74% 6.79
5+ 13.41% 7.46
Over 2.5 50.15% Under 2.5 49.85%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.50%
Draw 25.28%
Away Win 20.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.15%
Under 2.5 49.85%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.66%
No 49.34%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.63% 7.34 17.01% 5.88 69.36% 1.44
-1.5 30.64% 3.26 — 69.36% 1.44
-1.0 30.64% 3.26 24.61% 4.06 44.75% 2.23
-0.5 55.25% 1.81 — 44.75% 2.23
0 (PK) 55.25% 1.81 23.8% 4.2 20.95% 4.77
+0.5 79.05% 1.26 — 20.95% 4.77
+1.0 79.05% 1.26 13.74% 7.28 7.21% 13.87
+1.5 92.79% 1.08 — 7.21% 13.87
+2.0 92.79% 1.08 5.3% 18.87 1.91% 52.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.