Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
52.6%
Fair Odds 1.9
Draw
26.11%
Fair Odds 3.83
Away Win
21.29%
Fair Odds 4.7
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.18% Fair Odds 8.21

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.9 —
Draw 3.83 —
Away Win 4.7 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.18% 8.21
2 1-1 11.69% 8.55
3 2-0 9.99% 10.01
4 2-1 9.59% 10.43
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 0-1 7.13% 14.02
7 1-2 5.61% 17.82
8 3-0 5.46% 18.31
9 3-1 5.24% 19.08
10 2-2 4.6% 21.73
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.13%
14.02
3.42%
29.22
1.1%
91.31
0.26%
380.37
0.05%
1980.2
1
12.18%
8.21
11.69%
8.55
5.61%
17.82
1.8%
55.68
0.43%
231.96
0.08%
1207.73
2
9.99%
10.01
9.59%
10.43
4.6%
21.73
1.47%
67.9
0.35%
282.89
0.07%
1472.75
3
5.46%
18.31
5.24%
19.08
2.52%
39.74
0.81%
124.19
0.19%
517.6
0.04%
2695.42
4
2.24%
44.67
2.15%
46.53
1.03%
96.94
0.33%
302.94
0.08%
1262.63
0.02%
6578.95
5
0.73%
136.18
0.7%
141.86
0.34%
295.51
0.11%
923.36
0.03%
3846.15
0.01%
20000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.73% · Fair: 137.91
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 52.60%
Draw 26.11%
Away Win 21.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.74%
No 50.26%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.29% 8.13 16.38% 6.11 71.33% 1.4
-1.5 28.67% 3.49 — 71.33% 1.4
-1.0 28.67% 3.49 24.64% 4.06 46.68% 2.14
-0.5 53.31% 1.88 — 46.68% 2.14
0 (PK) 53.31% 1.88 24.61% 4.06 22.07% 4.53
+0.5 77.93% 1.28 — 22.07% 4.53
+1.0 77.93% 1.28 14.43% 6.93 7.65% 13.08
+1.5 92.35% 1.08 — 7.65% 13.08
+2.0 92.35% 1.08 5.61% 17.82 2.03% 49.15

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.