Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.98%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
29.27%
Fair Odds 3.42
Away Win
25.75%
Fair Odds 3.88
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.43% Fair Odds 7.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 3.42 —
Away Win 3.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.43% 7.44
2 1-1 12.9% 7.75
3 0-0 10.03% 9.97
4 0-1 9.62% 10.39
5 2-0 9.0% 11.11
6 2-1 8.64% 11.57
7 1-2 6.19% 16.15
8 0-2 4.62% 21.65
9 2-2 4.15% 24.11
10 3-0 4.02% 24.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.03%
9.97
9.62%
10.39
4.62%
21.65
1.48%
67.64
0.35%
281.85
0.07%
1468.43
1
13.43%
7.44
12.9%
7.75
6.19%
16.15
1.98%
50.48
0.48%
210.35
0.09%
1095.29
2
9.0%
11.11
8.64%
11.57
4.15%
24.11
1.33%
75.34
0.32%
313.97
0.06%
1633.99
3
4.02%
24.87
3.86%
25.91
1.85%
53.98
0.59%
168.66
0.14%
702.74
0.03%
3663.0
4
1.35%
74.24
1.29%
77.34
0.62%
161.13
0.2%
503.52
0.05%
2096.44
0.01%
10869.57
5
0.36%
277.01
0.35%
288.6
0.17%
601.32
0.05%
1879.7
0.01%
7812.5
0.0%
40000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.31% · Fair: 326.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.03% 9.97
1 23.06% 4.34
2 26.52% 3.77
3 20.33% 4.92
4 11.69% 8.55
5+ 8.38% 11.94
Over 2.5 40.4% Under 2.5 59.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.98%
Draw 29.27%
Away Win 25.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.4%
Under 2.5 59.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.55%
No 54.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.79% 12.84 13.54% 7.39 78.67% 1.27
-1.5 21.33% 4.69 — 78.67% 1.27
-1.0 21.33% 4.69 24.14% 4.14 54.53% 1.83
-0.5 45.47% 2.2 — 54.53% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.47% 2.2 27.71% 3.61 26.82% 3.73
+0.5 73.18% 1.37 — 26.82% 3.73
+1.0 73.18% 1.37 17.29% 5.78 9.52% 10.5
+1.5 90.48% 1.11 — 9.52% 10.5
+2.0 90.48% 1.11 6.95% 14.39 2.58% 38.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.