Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.45%
Fair Odds 2.25
Draw
29.48%
Fair Odds 3.39
Away Win
26.07%
Fair Odds 3.84
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.5% Fair Odds 7.41

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.25 —
Draw 3.39 —
Away Win 3.84 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.5% 7.41
2 1-1 12.96% 7.72
3 0-0 10.23% 9.78
4 0-1 9.82% 10.18
5 2-0 8.91% 11.22
6 2-1 8.55% 11.69
7 1-2 6.22% 16.07
8 0-2 4.71% 21.22
9 2-2 4.11% 24.35
10 3-0 3.92% 25.5
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.23%
9.78
9.82%
10.18
4.71%
21.22
1.51%
66.3
0.36%
276.24
0.07%
1438.85
1
13.5%
7.41
12.96%
7.72
6.22%
16.07
1.99%
50.23
0.48%
209.29
0.09%
1090.51
2
8.91%
11.22
8.55%
11.69
4.11%
24.35
1.31%
76.1
0.32%
317.06
0.06%
1652.89
3
3.92%
25.5
3.76%
26.57
1.81%
55.35
0.58%
172.95
0.14%
720.46
0.03%
3759.4
4
1.29%
77.29
1.24%
80.51
0.6%
167.73
0.19%
524.11
0.05%
2183.41
0.01%
11363.64
5
0.34%
292.74
0.33%
304.97
0.16%
635.32
0.05%
1984.13
0.01%
8264.46
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.29% · Fair: 346.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.23% 9.78
1 23.32% 4.29
2 26.59% 3.76
3 20.21% 4.95
4 11.52% 8.68
5+ 8.14% 12.28
Over 2.5 39.87% Under 2.5 60.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.45%
Draw 29.48%
Away Win 26.07%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.87%
Under 2.5 60.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.23%
No 54.77%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.52% 13.3 13.32% 7.51 79.15% 1.26
-1.5 20.85% 4.8 — 79.15% 1.26
-1.0 20.85% 4.8 24.07% 4.16 55.09% 1.82
-0.5 44.91% 2.23 — 55.09% 1.82
0 (PK) 44.91% 2.23 27.92% 3.58 27.17% 3.68
+0.5 72.83% 1.37 — 27.17% 3.68
+1.0 72.83% 1.37 17.5% 5.71 9.66% 10.35
+1.5 90.34% 1.11 — 9.66% 10.35
+2.0 90.34% 1.11 7.05% 14.19 2.62% 38.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.