Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.63%
Fair Odds 2.29
Draw
29.8%
Fair Odds 3.36
Away Win
26.57%
Fair Odds 3.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.6% Fair Odds 7.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.29 —
Draw 3.36 —
Away Win 3.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.6% 7.35
2 1-1 13.05% 7.66
3 0-0 10.54% 9.49
4 0-1 10.12% 9.88
5 2-0 8.77% 11.4
6 2-1 8.42% 11.88
7 1-2 6.27% 15.96
8 0-2 4.86% 20.59
9 2-2 4.04% 24.75
10 3-0 3.77% 26.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.54%
9.49
10.12%
9.88
4.86%
20.59
1.55%
64.34
0.37%
268.1
0.07%
1396.65
1
13.6%
7.35
13.05%
7.66
6.27%
15.96
2.0%
49.88
0.48%
207.81
0.09%
1082.25
2
8.77%
11.4
8.42%
11.88
4.04%
24.75
1.29%
77.33
0.31%
322.16
0.06%
1677.85
3
3.77%
26.52
3.62%
27.62
1.74%
57.55
0.56%
179.82
0.13%
749.06
0.03%
3906.25
4
1.22%
82.23
1.17%
85.65
0.56%
178.44
0.18%
557.72
0.04%
2325.58
0.01%
12048.19
5
0.31%
318.67
0.3%
332.01
0.14%
691.56
0.05%
2159.83
0.01%
9009.01
0.0%
47619.05
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 380.95
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.54% 9.49
1 23.71% 4.22
2 26.68% 3.75
3 20.01% 5.00
4 11.26% 8.88
5+ 7.80% 12.82
Over 2.5 39.07% Under 2.5 60.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.63%
Draw 29.80%
Away Win 26.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.07%
Under 2.5 60.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.72%
No 55.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.13% 14.03 13.0% 7.69 79.88% 1.25
-1.5 20.12% 4.97 — 79.88% 1.25
-1.0 20.12% 4.97 23.94% 4.18 55.93% 1.79
-0.5 44.07% 2.27 — 55.93% 1.79
0 (PK) 44.07% 2.27 28.23% 3.54 27.7% 3.61
+0.5 72.3% 1.38 — 27.7% 3.61
+1.0 72.3% 1.38 17.82% 5.61 9.88% 10.12
+1.5 90.12% 1.11 — 9.88% 10.12
+2.0 90.12% 1.11 7.2% 13.89 2.68% 37.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.