Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.36%
Fair Odds 2.31
Draw
29.9%
Fair Odds 3.34
Away Win
26.74%
Fair Odds 3.74
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.63% Fair Odds 7.34

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.31 —
Draw 3.34 —
Away Win 3.74 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.63% 7.34
2 1-1 13.08% 7.64
3 0-0 10.65% 9.39
4 0-1 10.22% 9.78
5 2-0 8.72% 11.47
6 2-1 8.37% 11.94
7 1-2 6.28% 15.93
8 0-2 4.91% 20.38
9 2-2 4.02% 24.88
10 3-0 3.72% 26.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
10.22%
9.78
4.91%
20.38
1.57%
63.7
0.38%
265.39
0.07%
1383.13
1
13.63%
7.34
13.08%
7.64
6.28%
15.93
2.01%
49.77
0.48%
207.38
0.09%
1079.91
2
8.72%
11.47
8.37%
11.94
4.02%
24.88
1.29%
77.76
0.31%
324.04
0.06%
1686.34
3
3.72%
26.87
3.57%
27.99
1.71%
58.32
0.55%
182.25
0.13%
759.3
0.03%
3952.57
4
1.19%
83.98
1.14%
87.48
0.55%
182.25
0.18%
569.48
0.04%
2375.3
0.01%
12345.68
5
0.3%
328.08
0.29%
341.76
0.14%
711.74
0.04%
2227.17
0.01%
9259.26
0.0%
47619.05
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.25% · Fair: 392.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.01
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.36%
Draw 29.90%
Away Win 26.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.55%
No 55.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.0% 14.29 12.89% 7.76 80.11% 1.25
-1.5 19.89% 5.03 — 80.11% 1.25
-1.0 19.89% 5.03 23.9% 4.18 56.21% 1.78
-0.5 43.79% 2.28 — 56.21% 1.78
0 (PK) 43.79% 2.28 28.34% 3.53 27.87% 3.59
+0.5 72.13% 1.39 — 27.87% 3.59
+1.0 72.13% 1.39 17.93% 5.58 9.95% 10.05
+1.5 90.05% 1.11 — 9.95% 10.05
+2.0 90.05% 1.11 7.25% 13.79 2.7% 37.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.