Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.58%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
30.95%
Fair Odds 3.23
Away Win
28.47%
Fair Odds 3.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.88% Fair Odds 7.2

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 3.23 —
Away Win 3.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.88% 7.2
2 1-1 13.33% 7.5
3 0-0 11.77% 8.5
4 0-1 11.29% 8.85
5 2-0 8.19% 12.21
6 2-1 7.86% 12.72
7 1-2 6.4% 15.63
8 0-2 5.42% 18.45
9 2-2 3.77% 26.49
10 3-0 3.22% 31.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.77%
8.5
11.29%
8.85
5.42%
18.45
1.73%
57.64
0.42%
240.15
0.08%
1251.56
1
13.88%
7.2
13.33%
7.5
6.4%
15.63
2.05%
48.85
0.49%
203.54
0.09%
1060.45
2
8.19%
12.21
7.86%
12.72
3.77%
26.49
1.21%
82.8
0.29%
344.95
0.06%
1795.33
3
3.22%
31.04
3.09%
32.33
1.48%
67.36
0.48%
210.48
0.11%
877.19
0.02%
4566.21
4
0.95%
105.22
0.91%
109.6
0.44%
228.31
0.14%
713.78
0.03%
2976.19
0.01%
15384.62
5
0.22%
445.83
0.22%
464.47
0.1%
967.12
0.03%
3021.15
0.01%
12658.23
0.0%
66666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.19% · Fair: 537.35
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.71% 38.29%
1.5 24.95% 75.05%
2.5 7.31% 92.69%
3.5 1.66% 98.34%
4.5 0.31% 99.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.77% 8.50
1 25.18% 3.97
2 26.94% 3.71
3 19.22% 5.20
4 10.28% 9.73
5+ 6.62% 15.11
Over 2.5 36.12% Under 2.5 63.88%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.58%
Draw 30.95%
Away Win 28.47%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.12%
Under 2.5 63.88%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.75%
No 57.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.76% 17.35 11.76% 8.51 82.48% 1.21
-1.5 17.52% 5.71 — 82.48% 1.21
-1.0 17.52% 5.71 23.38% 4.28 59.1% 1.69
-0.5 40.9% 2.44 — 59.1% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.9% 2.44 29.38% 3.4 29.72% 3.36
+0.5 70.28% 1.42 — 29.72% 3.36
+1.0 70.28% 1.42 19.02% 5.26 10.7% 9.35
+1.5 89.3% 1.12 — 10.7% 9.35
+2.0 89.3% 1.12 7.78% 12.85 2.92% 34.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.