Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.07%
Fair Odds 2.12
Draw
28.56%
Fair Odds 3.5
Away Win
24.38%
Fair Odds 4.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.31% Fair Odds 7.51

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.12 —
Draw 3.5 —
Away Win 4.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.31% 7.51
2 1-1 12.65% 7.91
3 0-0 9.44% 10.59
4 2-0 9.39% 10.65
5 0-1 8.97% 11.15
6 2-1 8.92% 11.22
7 1-2 6.01% 16.65
8 3-0 4.41% 22.67
9 0-2 4.26% 23.47
10 2-2 4.24% 23.61
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.44%
10.59
8.97%
11.15
4.26%
23.47
1.35%
74.12
0.32%
312.11
0.06%
1642.04
1
13.31%
7.51
12.65%
7.91
6.01%
16.65
1.9%
52.57
0.45%
221.34
0.09%
1165.5
2
9.39%
10.65
8.92%
11.22
4.24%
23.61
1.34%
74.56
0.32%
313.97
0.06%
1652.89
3
4.41%
22.67
4.19%
23.86
1.99%
50.24
0.63%
158.63
0.15%
668.0
0.03%
3521.13
4
1.55%
64.31
1.48%
67.7
0.7%
142.51
0.22%
450.05
0.05%
1893.94
0.01%
10000.0
5
0.44%
228.05
0.42%
240.04
0.2%
505.31
0.06%
1594.9
0.01%
6711.41
0.0%
35714.29
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.38% · Fair: 265.32
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.33% 38.67%
1.5 24.59% 75.41%
2.5 7.13% 92.87%
3.5 1.61% 98.39%
4.5 0.29% 99.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.44% 10.59
1 22.28% 4.49
2 26.29% 3.80
3 20.68% 4.83
4 12.20% 8.19
5+ 9.09% 11.00
Over 2.5 41.98% Under 2.5 58.02%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.07%
Draw 28.56%
Away Win 24.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.98%
Under 2.5 58.02%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.35%
No 53.65%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.82% 11.33 14.34% 6.97 76.83% 1.3
-1.5 23.17% 4.32 — 76.83% 1.3
-1.0 23.17% 4.32 24.46% 4.09 52.37% 1.91
-0.5 47.63% 2.1 — 52.37% 1.91
0 (PK) 47.63% 2.1 27.01% 3.7 25.36% 3.94
+0.5 74.64% 1.34 — 25.36% 3.94
+1.0 74.64% 1.34 16.48% 6.07 8.88% 11.26
+1.5 91.12% 1.1 — 8.88% 11.26
+2.0 91.12% 1.1 6.51% 15.36 2.37% 42.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.