Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.81%
Fair Odds 2.14
Draw
28.66%
Fair Odds 3.49
Away Win
24.53%
Fair Odds 4.08
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.35% Fair Odds 7.49

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.14 —
Draw 3.49 —
Away Win 4.08 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.35% 7.49
2 1-1 12.68% 7.88
3 0-0 9.54% 10.49
4 2-0 9.35% 10.7
5 0-1 9.06% 11.04
6 2-1 8.88% 11.26
7 1-2 6.02% 16.6
8 3-0 4.36% 22.93
9 0-2 4.3% 23.24
10 2-2 4.22% 23.71
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.54%
10.49
9.06%
11.04
4.3%
23.24
1.36%
73.38
0.32%
308.93
0.06%
1626.02
1
13.35%
7.49
12.68%
7.88
6.02%
16.6
1.91%
52.41
0.45%
220.7
0.09%
1161.44
2
9.35%
10.7
8.88%
11.26
4.22%
23.71
1.34%
74.88
0.32%
315.26
0.06%
1658.37
3
4.36%
22.93
4.14%
24.13
1.97%
50.81
0.62%
160.46
0.15%
675.68
0.03%
3558.72
4
1.53%
65.51
1.45%
68.96
0.69%
145.16
0.22%
458.51
0.05%
1930.5
0.01%
10204.08
5
0.43%
233.97
0.41%
246.24
0.19%
518.4
0.06%
1636.66
0.01%
6896.55
0.0%
35714.29
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.37% · Fair: 273.6
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.33% 38.67%
1.5 24.59% 75.41%
2.5 7.13% 92.87%
3.5 1.61% 98.39%
4.5 0.29% 99.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.54% 10.49
1 22.41% 4.46
2 26.33% 3.80
3 20.63% 4.85
4 12.12% 8.25
5+ 8.97% 11.15
Over 2.5 41.72% Under 2.5 58.28%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.81%
Draw 28.66%
Away Win 24.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.72%
Under 2.5 58.28%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.2%
No 53.8%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.68% 11.52 14.24% 7.02 77.08% 1.3
-1.5 22.92% 4.36 — 77.08% 1.3
-1.0 22.92% 4.36 24.43% 4.09 52.64% 1.9
-0.5 47.36% 2.11 — 52.64% 1.9
0 (PK) 47.36% 2.11 27.12% 3.69 25.53% 3.92
+0.5 74.47% 1.34 — 25.53% 3.92
+1.0 74.47% 1.34 16.58% 6.03 8.95% 11.17
+1.5 91.05% 1.1 — 8.95% 11.17
+2.0 91.05% 1.1 6.56% 15.25 2.39% 41.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.