Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.02%
Fair Odds 2.17
Draw
28.98%
Fair Odds 3.45
Away Win
25.0%
Fair Odds 4.0
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.46% Fair Odds 7.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.17 —
Draw 3.45 —
Away Win 4.0 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.46% 7.43
2 1-1 12.79% 7.82
3 0-0 9.83% 10.18
4 0-1 9.34% 10.71
5 2-0 9.22% 10.84
6 2-1 8.76% 11.41
7 1-2 6.08% 16.46
8 0-2 4.43% 22.55
9 3-0 4.21% 23.74
10 2-2 4.16% 24.03
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.83%
10.18
9.34%
10.71
4.43%
22.55
1.4%
71.21
0.33%
299.85
0.06%
1577.29
1
13.46%
7.43
12.79%
7.82
6.08%
16.46
1.92%
51.98
0.46%
218.87
0.09%
1152.07
2
9.22%
10.84
8.76%
11.41
4.16%
24.03
1.32%
75.88
0.31%
319.49
0.06%
1680.67
3
4.21%
23.74
4.0%
24.99
1.9%
52.62
0.6%
166.17
0.14%
699.79
0.03%
3676.47
4
1.44%
69.32
1.37%
72.97
0.65%
153.63
0.21%
485.2
0.05%
2040.82
0.01%
10752.69
5
0.4%
253.04
0.38%
266.31
0.18%
560.54
0.06%
1769.91
0.01%
7462.69
0.0%
40000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.33% · Fair: 299.94
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.33% 38.67%
1.5 24.59% 75.41%
2.5 7.13% 92.87%
3.5 1.61% 98.39%
4.5 0.29% 99.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.83% 10.18
1 22.80% 4.39
2 26.45% 3.78
3 20.45% 4.89
4 11.86% 8.43
5+ 8.61% 11.61
Over 2.5 40.93% Under 2.5 59.07%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.02%
Draw 28.98%
Away Win 25.00%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.93%
Under 2.5 59.07%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.74%
No 54.26%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.26% 12.11 13.93% 7.18 77.81% 1.29
-1.5 22.19% 4.51 — 77.81% 1.29
-1.0 22.19% 4.51 24.35% 4.11 53.46% 1.87
-0.5 46.54% 2.15 — 53.46% 1.87
0 (PK) 46.54% 2.15 27.43% 3.65 26.03% 3.84
+0.5 73.97% 1.35 — 26.03% 3.84
+1.0 73.97% 1.35 16.88% 5.92 9.15% 10.93
+1.5 90.85% 1.1 — 9.15% 10.93
+2.0 90.85% 1.1 6.7% 14.93 2.45% 40.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.