Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.86%
Fair Odds 2.28
Draw
29.84%
Fair Odds 3.35
Away Win
26.3%
Fair Odds 3.8
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.73% Fair Odds 7.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.28 —
Draw 3.35 —
Away Win 3.8 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.73% 7.28
2 1-1 13.05% 7.66
3 0-0 10.65% 9.39
4 0-1 10.11% 9.89
5 2-0 8.86% 11.29
6 2-1 8.42% 11.88
7 1-2 6.2% 16.14
8 0-2 4.8% 20.82
9 2-2 4.0% 25.02
10 3-0 3.81% 26.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
10.11%
9.89
4.8%
20.82
1.52%
65.74
0.36%
276.78
0.07%
1457.73
1
13.73%
7.28
13.05%
7.66
6.2%
16.14
1.96%
50.96
0.47%
214.55
0.09%
1128.67
2
8.86%
11.29
8.42%
11.88
4.0%
25.02
1.27%
79.0
0.3%
332.67
0.06%
1751.31
3
3.81%
26.25
3.62%
27.64
1.72%
58.18
0.54%
183.72
0.13%
773.4
0.02%
4065.04
4
1.23%
81.41
1.17%
85.7
0.55%
180.41
0.18%
569.8
0.04%
2398.08
0.01%
12658.23
5
0.32%
315.56
0.3%
332.12
0.14%
699.3
0.05%
2207.51
0.01%
9259.26
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 384.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 61.33% 38.67%
1.5 24.59% 75.41%
2.5 7.13% 92.87%
3.5 1.61% 98.39%
4.5 0.29% 99.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.01
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.86%
Draw 29.84%
Away Win 26.30%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.44%
No 55.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.18% 13.93 13.08% 7.65 79.74% 1.25
-1.5 20.26% 4.94 — 79.74% 1.25
-1.0 20.26% 4.94 24.05% 4.16 55.69% 1.8
-0.5 44.31% 2.26 — 55.69% 1.8
0 (PK) 44.31% 2.26 28.28% 3.54 27.41% 3.65
+0.5 72.59% 1.38 — 27.41% 3.65
+1.0 72.59% 1.38 17.71% 5.65 9.7% 10.31
+1.5 90.3% 1.11 — 9.7% 10.31
+2.0 90.3% 1.11 7.09% 14.1 2.61% 38.36

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.