Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
60.93%
Fair Odds 1.64
Draw
22.49%
Fair Odds 4.45
Away Win
16.58%
Fair Odds 6.03
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 10.63% Fair Odds 9.41

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.64 —
Draw 4.45 —
Away Win 6.03 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 10.63% 9.41
2 2-0 10.57% 9.46
3 1-1 9.99% 10.01
4 2-1 9.94% 10.06
5 3-0 7.01% 14.26
6 3-1 6.59% 15.17
7 0-0 5.34% 18.73
8 0-1 5.02% 19.92
9 1-2 4.69% 21.3
10 2-2 4.67% 21.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.34%
18.73
5.02%
19.92
2.36%
42.39
0.74%
135.28
0.17%
575.71
0.03%
3058.1
1
10.63%
9.41
9.99%
10.01
4.69%
21.3
1.47%
67.98
0.35%
289.27
0.07%
1538.46
2
10.57%
9.46
9.94%
10.06
4.67%
21.41
1.46%
68.32
0.34%
290.7
0.06%
1545.6
3
7.01%
14.26
6.59%
15.17
3.1%
32.27
0.97%
103.0
0.23%
438.21
0.04%
2331.0
4
3.49%
28.66
3.28%
30.49
1.54%
64.87
0.48%
207.04
0.11%
881.06
0.02%
4694.84
5
1.39%
72.01
1.31%
76.6
0.61%
163.0
0.19%
520.29
0.05%
2212.39
0.01%
11764.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.66% · Fair: 60.17
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.33% 13.67%
1.5 59.13% 40.87%
2.5 32.06% 67.94%
3.5 14.11% 85.89%
4.5 5.17% 94.82%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.94% 39.06%
1.5 24.22% 75.78%
2.5 6.96% 93.04%
3.5 1.55% 98.45%
4.5 0.28% 99.72%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.34% 18.73
1 15.65% 6.39
2 22.92% 4.36
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.40% 6.10
5+ 17.31% 5.78
Over 2.5 56.09% Under 2.5 43.91%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 60.93%
Draw 22.49%
Away Win 16.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.09%
Under 2.5 43.91%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.61%
No 47.39%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 18.69% 5.35 18.91% 5.29 62.39% 1.6
-1.5 37.61% 2.66 — 62.39% 1.6
-1.0 37.61% 2.66 24.19% 4.13 38.2% 2.62
-0.5 61.8% 1.62 — 38.2% 2.62
0 (PK) 61.8% 1.62 21.09% 4.74 17.11% 5.85
+0.5 82.89% 1.21 — 17.11% 5.85
+1.0 82.89% 1.21 11.43% 8.75 5.68% 17.61
+1.5 94.32% 1.06 — 5.68% 17.61
+2.0 94.32% 1.06 4.22% 23.69 1.46% 68.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.