Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.27%
Fair Odds 1.84
Draw
25.58%
Fair Odds 3.91
Away Win
20.15%
Fair Odds 4.96
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.18% Fair Odds 8.21

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.84 —
Draw 3.91 —
Away Win 4.96 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.18% 8.21
2 1-1 11.45% 8.73
3 2-0 10.29% 9.72
4 2-1 9.68% 10.34
5 0-0 7.21% 13.87
6 0-1 6.78% 14.76
7 3-0 5.8% 17.25
8 3-1 5.45% 18.35
9 1-2 5.38% 18.58
10 2-2 4.55% 21.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.21%
13.87
6.78%
14.76
3.18%
31.4
1.0%
100.22
0.23%
426.44
0.04%
2267.57
1
12.18%
8.21
11.45%
8.73
5.38%
18.58
1.69%
59.3
0.4%
252.33
0.07%
1342.28
2
10.29%
9.72
9.68%
10.34
4.55%
21.99
1.42%
70.18
0.33%
298.69
0.06%
1587.3
3
5.8%
17.25
5.45%
18.35
2.56%
39.04
0.8%
124.58
0.19%
530.22
0.04%
2816.9
4
2.45%
40.82
2.3%
43.42
1.08%
92.4
0.34%
294.9
0.08%
1254.71
0.01%
6666.67
5
0.83%
120.76
0.78%
128.47
0.37%
273.37
0.11%
872.6
0.03%
3717.47
0.01%
19607.84
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.82% · Fair: 121.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.94% 39.06%
1.5 24.22% 75.78%
2.5 6.96% 93.04%
3.5 1.55% 98.45%
4.5 0.28% 99.72%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.21% 13.87
1 18.96% 5.28
2 24.93% 4.01
3 21.85% 4.58
4 14.37% 6.96
5+ 12.69% 7.88
Over 2.5 48.91% Under 2.5 51.09%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.27%
Draw 25.58%
Away Win 20.15%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.91%
Under 2.5 51.09%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.69%
No 50.31%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.29% 7.52 16.95% 5.9 69.76% 1.43
-1.5 30.24% 3.31 — 69.76% 1.43
-1.0 30.24% 3.31 24.79% 4.03 44.97% 2.22
-0.5 55.03% 1.82 — 44.97% 2.22
0 (PK) 55.03% 1.82 24.09% 4.15 20.88% 4.79
+0.5 79.12% 1.26 — 20.88% 4.79
+1.0 79.12% 1.26 13.79% 7.25 7.09% 14.1
+1.5 92.91% 1.08 — 7.09% 14.1
+2.0 92.91% 1.08 5.24% 19.07 1.85% 54.07

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.