Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.3%
Fair Odds 2.11
Draw
28.58%
Fair Odds 3.5
Away Win
24.11%
Fair Odds 4.15
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.45% Fair Odds 7.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.11 —
Draw 3.5 —
Away Win 4.15 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.45% 7.44
2 1-1 12.64% 7.91
3 0-0 9.54% 10.49
4 2-0 9.48% 10.55
5 0-1 8.96% 11.15
6 2-1 8.91% 11.22
7 1-2 5.94% 16.83
8 3-0 4.46% 22.44
9 0-2 4.21% 23.73
10 2-2 4.19% 23.88
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.54%
10.49
8.96%
11.15
4.21%
23.73
1.32%
75.75
0.31%
322.37
0.06%
1715.27
1
13.45%
7.44
12.64%
7.91
5.94%
16.83
1.86%
53.72
0.44%
228.62
0.08%
1216.55
2
9.48%
10.55
8.91%
11.22
4.19%
23.88
1.31%
76.2
0.31%
324.25
0.06%
1724.14
3
4.46%
22.44
4.19%
23.88
1.97%
50.8
0.62%
162.13
0.14%
690.13
0.03%
3663.0
4
1.57%
63.67
1.48%
67.73
0.69%
144.11
0.22%
459.98
0.05%
1956.95
0.01%
10416.67
5
0.44%
225.78
0.42%
240.21
0.2%
510.99
0.06%
1631.32
0.01%
6944.44
0.0%
37037.04
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.37% · Fair: 266.95
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.94% 39.06%
1.5 24.22% 75.78%
2.5 6.96% 93.04%
3.5 1.55% 98.45%
4.5 0.28% 99.72%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.54% 10.49
1 22.41% 4.46
2 26.33% 3.80
3 20.63% 4.85
4 12.12% 8.25
5+ 8.97% 11.15
Over 2.5 41.72% Under 2.5 58.28%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.30%
Draw 28.58%
Away Win 24.11%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.72%
Under 2.5 58.28%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.06%
No 53.94%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.88% 11.26 14.43% 6.93 76.69% 1.3
-1.5 23.31% 4.29 — 76.69% 1.3
-1.0 23.31% 4.29 24.56% 4.07 52.13% 1.92
-0.5 47.87% 2.09 — 52.13% 1.92
0 (PK) 47.87% 2.09 27.04% 3.7 25.09% 3.99
+0.5 74.91% 1.33 — 25.09% 3.99
+1.0 74.91% 1.33 16.37% 6.11 8.72% 11.47
+1.5 91.28% 1.1 — 8.72% 11.47
+2.0 91.28% 1.1 6.41% 15.6 2.31% 43.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.