Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.71%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
30.42%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
26.86%
Fair Odds 3.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.02% Fair Odds 7.13

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 3.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.02% 7.13
2 1-1 13.18% 7.59
3 0-0 11.3% 8.85
4 0-1 10.63% 9.41
5 2-0 8.69% 11.51
6 2-1 8.17% 12.24
7 1-2 6.19% 16.15
8 0-2 4.99% 20.02
9 2-2 3.84% 26.05
10 3-0 3.59% 27.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.3%
8.85
10.63%
9.41
4.99%
20.02
1.56%
63.91
0.37%
271.96
0.07%
1447.18
1
14.02%
7.13
13.18%
7.59
6.19%
16.15
1.94%
51.54
0.46%
219.3
0.09%
1166.86
2
8.69%
11.51
8.17%
12.24
3.84%
26.05
1.2%
83.12
0.28%
353.73
0.05%
1879.7
3
3.59%
27.84
3.38%
29.62
1.59%
63.01
0.5%
201.09
0.12%
855.43
0.02%
4545.45
4
1.11%
89.8
1.05%
95.54
0.49%
203.25
0.15%
648.51
0.04%
2762.43
0.01%
14705.88
5
0.28%
362.06
0.26%
385.21
0.12%
819.67
0.04%
2617.8
0.01%
11111.11
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.22% · Fair: 455.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.94% 39.06%
1.5 24.22% 75.78%
2.5 6.96% 93.04%
3.5 1.55% 98.45%
4.5 0.28% 99.72%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.30% 8.85
1 24.64% 4.06
2 26.86% 3.72
3 19.52% 5.12
4 10.64% 9.40
5+ 7.04% 14.21
Over 2.5 37.19% Under 2.5 62.81%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.71%
Draw 30.42%
Away Win 26.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.19%
Under 2.5 62.81%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.3%
No 56.7%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.58% 15.19 12.6% 7.94 80.82% 1.24
-1.5 19.18% 5.21 — 80.82% 1.24
-1.0 19.18% 5.21 23.94% 4.18 56.88% 1.76
-0.5 43.12% 2.32 — 56.88% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.12% 2.32 28.86% 3.47 28.02% 3.57
+0.5 71.98% 1.39 — 28.02% 3.57
+1.0 71.98% 1.39 18.15% 5.51 9.88% 10.12
+1.5 90.12% 1.11 — 9.88% 10.12
+2.0 90.12% 1.11 7.24% 13.81 2.64% 37.9

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.