Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.89%
Fair Odds 2.51
Draw
31.5%
Fair Odds 3.17
Away Win
28.61%
Fair Odds 3.5
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.24% Fair Odds 7.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.51 —
Draw 3.17 —
Away Win 3.5 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.24% 7.02
2 1-1 13.39% 7.47
3 0-0 12.49% 8.0
4 0-1 11.74% 8.52
5 2-0 8.12% 12.32
6 2-1 7.63% 13.1
7 1-2 6.29% 15.89
8 0-2 5.52% 18.12
9 2-2 3.59% 27.88
10 3-0 3.08% 32.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.49%
8.0
11.74%
8.52
5.52%
18.12
1.73%
57.82
0.41%
246.06
0.08%
1308.9
1
14.24%
7.02
13.39%
7.47
6.29%
15.89
1.97%
50.72
0.46%
215.84
0.09%
1148.11
2
8.12%
12.32
7.63%
13.1
3.59%
27.88
1.12%
88.98
0.26%
378.64
0.05%
2016.13
3
3.08%
32.42
2.9%
34.49
1.36%
73.37
0.43%
234.19
0.1%
996.02
0.02%
5291.01
4
0.88%
113.74
0.83%
121.01
0.39%
257.47
0.12%
821.69
0.03%
3496.5
0.01%
18518.52
5
0.2%
498.75
0.19%
530.79
0.09%
1128.67
0.03%
3610.11
0.01%
15384.62
0.0%
83333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.16% · Fair: 627.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.94% 39.06%
1.5 24.22% 75.78%
2.5 6.96% 93.04%
3.5 1.55% 98.45%
4.5 0.28% 99.72%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.49% 8.00
1 25.99% 3.85
2 27.02% 3.70
3 18.74% 5.34
4 9.74% 10.26
5+ 6.02% 16.62
Over 2.5 34.5% Under 2.5 65.5%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.89%
Draw 31.50%
Away Win 28.61%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 34.5%
Under 2.5 65.5%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 41.45%
No 58.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.38% 18.58 11.44% 8.74 83.18% 1.2
-1.5 16.82% 5.95 — 83.18% 1.2
-1.0 16.82% 5.95 23.36% 4.28 59.82% 1.67
-0.5 40.18% 2.49 — 59.82% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.18% 2.49 29.92% 3.34 29.89% 3.35
+0.5 70.11% 1.43 — 29.89% 3.35
+1.0 70.11% 1.43 19.27% 5.19 10.63% 9.41
+1.5 89.37% 1.12 — 10.63% 9.41
+2.0 89.37% 1.12 7.77% 12.86 2.85% 35.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.