Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.14%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
29.59%
Fair Odds 3.38
Away Win
25.26%
Fair Odds 3.96
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.91% Fair Odds 7.19

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 3.38 —
Away Win 3.96 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.91% 7.19
2 1-1 12.94% 7.73
3 0-0 10.54% 9.49
4 0-1 9.8% 10.2
5 2-0 9.18% 10.89
6 2-1 8.54% 11.71
7 1-2 6.02% 16.62
8 0-2 4.56% 21.94
9 3-0 4.04% 24.75
10 2-2 3.97% 25.18
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.54%
9.49
9.8%
10.2
4.56%
21.94
1.41%
70.77
0.33%
304.41
0.06%
1636.66
1
13.91%
7.19
12.94%
7.73
6.02%
16.62
1.87%
53.62
0.43%
230.63
0.08%
1239.16
2
9.18%
10.89
8.54%
11.71
3.97%
25.18
1.23%
81.23
0.29%
349.41
0.05%
1879.7
3
4.04%
24.75
3.76%
26.61
1.75%
57.23
0.54%
184.64
0.13%
794.28
0.02%
4273.5
4
1.33%
75.0
1.24%
80.65
0.58%
173.43
0.18%
559.6
0.04%
2403.85
0.01%
12987.01
5
0.35%
284.09
0.33%
305.53
0.15%
657.03
0.05%
2118.64
0.01%
9090.91
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.28% · Fair: 355.37
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.54% 39.46%
1.5 23.85% 76.15%
2.5 6.79% 93.21%
3.5 1.5% 98.5%
4.5 0.27% 99.73%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.54% 9.49
1 23.71% 4.22
2 26.68% 3.75
3 20.01% 5.00
4 11.26% 8.88
5+ 7.80% 12.82
Over 2.5 39.07% Under 2.5 60.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.14%
Draw 29.59%
Away Win 25.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.07%
Under 2.5 60.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.37%
No 55.63%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.68% 13.02 13.57% 7.37 78.75% 1.27
-1.5 21.25% 4.71 — 78.75% 1.27
-1.0 21.25% 4.71 24.39% 4.1 54.36% 1.84
-0.5 45.64% 2.19 — 54.36% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.64% 2.19 28.03% 3.57 26.33% 3.8
+0.5 73.67% 1.36 — 26.33% 3.8
+1.0 73.67% 1.36 17.18% 5.82 9.14% 10.94
+1.5 90.86% 1.1 — 9.14% 10.94
+2.0 90.86% 1.1 6.73% 14.85 2.41% 41.51

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.