Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
65.57%
Fair Odds 1.53
Draw
20.35%
Fair Odds 4.91
Away Win
14.08%
Fair Odds 7.1
Most Likely Score
2 - 0
Probability 10.69% Fair Odds 9.36

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.53 —
Draw 4.91 —
Away Win 7.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-0 10.69% 9.36
2 2-1 9.83% 10.17
3 1-0 9.71% 10.29
4 1-1 8.94% 11.19
5 3-0 7.84% 12.76
6 3-1 7.21% 13.87
7 2-2 4.52% 22.11
8 0-0 4.42% 22.65
9 4-0 4.31% 23.2
10 1-2 4.11% 24.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.42%
22.65
4.06%
24.62
1.87%
53.51
0.57%
174.49
0.13%
758.73
0.02%
4115.23
1
9.71%
10.29
8.94%
11.19
4.11%
24.32
1.26%
79.31
0.29%
344.83
0.05%
1872.66
2
10.69%
9.36
9.83%
10.17
4.52%
22.11
1.39%
72.1
0.32%
313.48
0.06%
1703.58
3
7.84%
12.76
7.21%
13.87
3.32%
30.15
1.02%
98.33
0.23%
427.53
0.04%
2325.58
4
4.31%
23.2
3.97%
25.22
1.82%
54.82
0.56%
178.76
0.13%
777.0
0.02%
4219.41
5
1.9%
52.73
1.74%
57.32
0.8%
124.6
0.25%
406.34
0.06%
1766.78
0.01%
9615.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.53% · Fair: 39.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.92% 11.08%
1.5 64.54% 35.46%
2.5 37.73% 62.27%
3.5 18.06% 81.94%
4.5 7.25% 92.75%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.42% 22.65
1 13.78% 7.26
2 21.49% 4.65
3 22.35% 4.47
4 17.43% 5.74
5+ 20.53% 4.87
Over 2.5 60.31% Under 2.5 39.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 65.57%
Draw 20.35%
Away Win 14.08%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.31%
Under 2.5 39.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.48%
No 46.52%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 23.02% 4.34 19.99% 5.0 56.99% 1.75
-1.5 43.01% 2.33 — 56.99% 1.75
-1.0 43.01% 2.33 23.48% 4.26 33.51% 2.98
-0.5 66.49% 1.5 — 33.51% 2.98
0 (PK) 66.49% 1.5 19.03% 5.25 14.48% 6.91
+0.5 85.52% 1.17 — 14.48% 6.91
+1.0 85.52% 1.17 9.82% 10.18 4.66% 21.47
+1.5 95.34% 1.05 — 4.66% 21.47
+2.0 95.34% 1.05 3.5% 28.61 1.16% 85.96

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.