Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.51%
Fair Odds 1.83
Draw
25.67%
Fair Odds 3.9
Away Win
19.82%
Fair Odds 5.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.48% Fair Odds 8.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.83 —
Draw 3.9 —
Away Win 5.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.48% 8.01
2 1-1 11.48% 8.71
3 2-0 10.48% 9.54
4 2-1 9.64% 10.37
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 0-1 6.83% 14.63
7 3-0 5.87% 17.04
8 3-1 5.4% 18.52
9 1-2 5.28% 18.94
10 2-2 4.44% 22.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
6.83%
14.63
3.14%
31.81
0.96%
103.75
0.22%
451.06
0.04%
2450.98
1
12.48%
8.01
11.48%
8.71
5.28%
18.94
1.62%
61.75
0.37%
268.46
0.07%
1459.85
2
10.48%
9.54
9.64%
10.37
4.44%
22.54
1.36%
73.51
0.31%
319.59
0.06%
1736.11
3
5.87%
17.04
5.4%
18.52
2.48%
40.26
0.76%
131.27
0.18%
570.78
0.03%
3105.59
4
2.47%
40.56
2.27%
44.09
1.04%
95.85
0.32%
312.6
0.07%
1358.7
0.01%
7407.41
5
0.83%
120.73
0.76%
131.22
0.35%
285.31
0.11%
930.23
0.02%
4048.58
0.0%
22222.22
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.8% · Fair: 125.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.36% 18.64%
1.5 50.05% 49.95%
2.5 23.75% 76.25%
3.5 9.02% 90.98%
4.5 2.84% 97.16%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.51%
Draw 25.67%
Away Win 19.82%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.94%
No 51.06%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.29% 7.52 17.04% 5.87 69.67% 1.44
-1.5 30.33% 3.3 — 69.67% 1.44
-1.0 30.33% 3.3 24.95% 4.01 44.72% 2.24
-0.5 55.28% 1.81 — 44.72% 2.24
0 (PK) 55.28% 1.81 24.18% 4.14 20.53% 4.87
+0.5 79.47% 1.26 — 20.53% 4.87
+1.0 79.47% 1.26 13.66% 7.32 6.87% 14.56
+1.5 93.13% 1.07 — 6.87% 14.56
+2.0 93.13% 1.07 5.11% 19.57 1.76% 56.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.