Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.3%
Fair Odds 2.07
Draw
28.41%
Fair Odds 3.52
Away Win
23.29%
Fair Odds 4.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.64% Fair Odds 7.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.07 —
Draw 3.52 —
Away Win 4.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.64% 7.33
2 1-1 12.55% 7.97
3 2-0 9.75% 10.26
4 0-0 9.54% 10.49
5 2-1 8.97% 11.15
6 0-1 8.77% 11.4
7 1-2 5.77% 17.33
8 3-0 4.65% 21.51
9 3-1 4.28% 23.39
10 2-2 4.13% 24.23
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.54%
10.49
8.77%
11.4
4.04%
24.78
1.24%
80.8
0.28%
351.25
0.05%
1908.4
1
13.64%
7.33
12.55%
7.97
5.77%
17.33
1.77%
56.5
0.41%
245.64
0.07%
1335.11
2
9.75%
10.26
8.97%
11.15
4.13%
24.23
1.27%
79.02
0.29%
343.52
0.05%
1865.67
3
4.65%
21.51
4.28%
23.39
1.97%
50.84
0.6%
165.78
0.14%
720.98
0.03%
3921.57
4
1.66%
60.18
1.53%
65.42
0.7%
142.21
0.22%
463.61
0.05%
2016.13
0.01%
10989.01
5
0.48%
210.44
0.44%
228.73
0.2%
497.27
0.06%
1620.75
0.01%
7042.25
0.0%
38461.54
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.39% · Fair: 254.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.54% 10.49
1 22.41% 4.46
2 26.33% 3.80
3 20.63% 4.85
4 12.12% 8.25
5+ 8.97% 11.15
Over 2.5 41.72% Under 2.5 58.28%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.30%
Draw 28.41%
Away Win 23.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.72%
Under 2.5 58.28%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.75%
No 54.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.3% 10.75 14.8% 6.76 75.9% 1.32
-1.5 24.1% 4.15 — 75.9% 1.32
-1.0 24.1% 4.15 24.81% 4.03 51.1% 1.96
-0.5 48.9% 2.04 — 51.1% 1.96
0 (PK) 48.9% 2.04 26.87% 3.72 24.23% 4.13
+0.5 75.77% 1.32 — 24.23% 4.13
+1.0 75.77% 1.32 15.96% 6.27 8.27% 12.09
+1.5 91.73% 1.09 — 8.27% 12.09
+2.0 91.73% 1.09 6.12% 16.33 2.15% 46.58

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.