Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.65%
Fair Odds 2.19
Draw
29.52%
Fair Odds 3.39
Away Win
24.83%
Fair Odds 4.03
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.02% Fair Odds 7.13

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.19 —
Draw 3.39 —
Away Win 4.03 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.02% 7.13
2 1-1 12.9% 7.75
3 0-0 10.54% 9.49
4 0-1 9.7% 10.31
5 2-0 9.32% 10.73
6 2-1 8.58% 11.66
7 1-2 5.93% 16.86
8 0-2 4.46% 22.42
9 3-0 4.13% 24.2
10 2-2 3.95% 25.35
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.54%
9.49
9.7%
10.31
4.46%
22.42
1.37%
73.1
0.31%
317.86
0.06%
1727.12
1
14.02%
7.13
12.9%
7.75
5.93%
16.86
1.82%
54.97
0.42%
239.01
0.08%
1298.7
2
9.32%
10.73
8.58%
11.66
3.95%
25.35
1.21%
82.66
0.28%
359.32
0.05%
1953.12
3
4.13%
24.2
3.8%
26.3
1.75%
57.18
0.54%
186.43
0.12%
810.37
0.02%
4405.29
4
1.37%
72.77
1.26%
79.1
0.58%
171.97
0.18%
560.85
0.04%
2439.02
0.01%
13333.33
5
0.37%
273.6
0.34%
297.35
0.15%
646.41
0.05%
2109.7
0.01%
9174.31
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.29% · Fair: 347.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.54% 9.49
1 23.71% 4.22
2 26.68% 3.75
3 20.01% 5.00
4 11.26% 8.88
5+ 7.80% 12.82
Over 2.5 39.07% Under 2.5 60.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.65%
Draw 29.52%
Away Win 24.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.07%
Under 2.5 60.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.24%
No 55.76%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.87% 12.7 13.76% 7.27 78.37% 1.28
-1.5 21.63% 4.62 — 78.37% 1.28
-1.0 21.63% 4.62 24.53% 4.08 53.84% 1.86
-0.5 46.16% 2.17 — 53.84% 1.86
0 (PK) 46.16% 2.17 27.96% 3.58 25.88% 3.86
+0.5 74.12% 1.35 — 25.88% 3.86
+1.0 74.12% 1.35 16.97% 5.89 8.91% 11.23
+1.5 91.09% 1.1 — 8.91% 11.23
+2.0 91.09% 1.1 6.58% 15.19 2.32% 43.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.