Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.72%
Fair Odds 3.61
Draw
35.51%
Fair Odds 2.82
Away Win
36.77%
Fair Odds 2.72
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 18.27% Fair Odds 5.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.61 —
Draw 2.82 —
Away Win 2.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 18.27% 5.47
2 0-1 16.81% 5.95
3 1-0 14.25% 7.02
4 1-1 13.11% 7.63
5 0-2 7.73% 12.93
6 1-2 6.03% 16.58
7 2-0 5.56% 17.99
8 2-1 5.11% 19.56
9 0-3 2.37% 42.18
10 2-2 2.35% 42.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
18.27%
5.47
16.81%
5.95
7.73%
12.93
2.37%
42.18
0.55%
183.39
0.1%
997.01
1
14.25%
7.02
13.11%
7.63
6.03%
16.58
1.85%
54.07
0.43%
235.13
0.08%
1277.14
2
5.56%
17.99
5.11%
19.56
2.35%
42.52
0.72%
138.66
0.17%
602.77
0.03%
3278.69
3
1.44%
69.21
1.33%
75.23
0.61%
163.53
0.19%
533.33
0.04%
2320.19
0.01%
12658.23
4
0.28%
354.86
0.26%
385.8
0.12%
838.93
0.04%
2732.24
0.01%
11904.76
0.0%
66666.67
5
0.04%
2272.73
0.04%
2475.25
0.02%
5376.34
0.01%
17543.86
0.0%
76923.08
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.05% · Fair: 1828.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 54.16% 45.84%
1.5 18.4% 81.6%
2.5 4.46% 95.54%
3.5 0.83% 99.17%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 18.27% 5.47
1 31.06% 3.22
2 26.40% 3.79
3 14.96% 6.69
4 6.36% 15.73
5+ 2.96% 33.77
Over 2.5 24.28% Under 2.5 75.72%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.72%
Draw 35.51%
Away Win 36.77%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 24.28%
Under 2.5 75.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 32.58%
No 67.42%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.1% 47.51 7.01% 14.26 90.88% 1.1
-1.5 9.12% 10.97 — 90.88% 1.1
-1.0 9.12% 10.97 20.01% 5.0 70.87% 1.41
-0.5 29.13% 3.43 — 70.87% 1.41
0 (PK) 29.13% 3.43 33.93% 2.95 36.95% 2.71
+0.5 63.05% 1.59 — 36.95% 2.71
+1.0 63.05% 1.59 23.6% 4.24 13.34% 7.49
+1.5 86.66% 1.15 — 13.34% 7.49
+2.0 86.66% 1.15 9.75% 10.25 3.59% 27.86

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.