Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
58.42%
Fair Odds 1.71
Draw
23.95%
Fair Odds 4.18
Away Win
17.63%
Fair Odds 5.67
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 11.76% Fair Odds 8.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.71 —
Draw 4.18 —
Away Win 5.67 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 11.76% 8.5
2 2-0 10.82% 9.24
3 1-1 10.7% 9.34
4 2-1 9.85% 10.15
5 3-0 6.64% 15.07
6 0-0 6.39% 15.64
7 3-1 6.04% 16.56
8 0-1 5.82% 17.19
9 1-2 4.87% 20.53
10 2-2 4.48% 22.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
5.82%
17.19
2.65%
37.78
0.8%
124.55
0.18%
547.35
0.03%
3012.05
1
11.76%
8.5
10.7%
9.34
4.87%
20.53
1.48%
67.69
0.34%
297.53
0.06%
1633.99
2
10.82%
9.24
9.85%
10.15
4.48%
22.32
1.36%
73.57
0.31%
323.42
0.06%
1776.2
3
6.64%
15.07
6.04%
16.56
2.75%
36.39
0.83%
119.96
0.19%
527.43
0.03%
2898.55
4
3.05%
32.75
2.78%
35.99
1.26%
79.1
0.38%
260.76
0.09%
1146.79
0.02%
6289.31
5
1.12%
89.0
1.02%
97.81
0.47%
214.96
0.14%
708.72
0.03%
3115.26
0.01%
17241.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.18% · Fair: 84.65
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.12% 15.88%
1.5 54.9% 45.1%
2.5 28.01% 71.99%
3.5 11.52% 88.48%
4.5 3.94% 96.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 59.75% 40.25%
1.5 23.12% 76.88%
2.5 6.45% 93.55%
3.5 1.4% 98.6%
4.5 0.25% 99.75%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 58.42%
Draw 23.95%
Away Win 17.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.26%
No 49.74%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 16.21% 6.17 18.28% 5.47 65.51% 1.53
-1.5 34.49% 2.9 — 65.51% 1.53
-1.0 34.49% 2.9 24.78% 4.04 40.73% 2.45
-0.5 59.27% 1.69 — 40.73% 2.45
0 (PK) 59.27% 1.69 22.5% 4.44 18.23% 5.49
+0.5 81.77% 1.22 — 18.23% 5.49
+1.0 81.77% 1.22 12.25% 8.16 5.98% 16.74
+1.5 94.02% 1.06 — 5.98% 16.74
+2.0 94.02% 1.06 4.47% 22.37 1.5% 66.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.